JPM Flows Liquidity 1

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 20 August 2026

Flows & Liquidity Are large enterprises spending $1.5tr on AI already?

Global Markets Strategy Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou AC • The recent acceleration in AI companies’ revenues makes the AI capex ( cycle look more economically viable than it did six months ago. J.P. Morgan Securities plc • The share of retail investors in US equity trading spiked in June, Mika Inkinen suggesting that retail investors participated in the deleveraging phase that ( had started that month and had intensified in July. • Few signs from flow metrics of a meaningful unwind of the broader yen J.P. Morgan Securities plc carry trade. Mayur Yeole ( • Flows & Liquidity will not be published next week due to holidays. The next issue will be published on September 2nd. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited Krutik P Mehta ( Cross Asset Fund Flow Monitor Current level shows the latest percentile of weekly flows; Min is denoted by 0 and Max by 1. As of 12th Aug 26. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Cross Asset Positioning Monitor Current level shows the latest percentile, Min is denoted by 0 and Max by 1.

Source: J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity. Cross Asset Positioning Monitor aggregates across the various position indicators of Appendix ranging from positioning proxies across various futures contracts, momentum signals as proxies of how trend-following funds/ CTAs are positioned, mutual fund betas as proxies of how mutual fund managers are positioned, risk parity fund positioning and leverage proxies, hedge fund betas as proxies of how hedge fund managers are positioned, client surveys, asset allocation estimates of private non-bank investors at global level, short interest indicators, etc. Source: Lipper, ICI, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity. * US LL historical flows are monthly averages converted to weekly for comparison. China onshore A-share ETFs have been excluded.

See page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

J.P. Morgan Securities plc Global Markets Strategy Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou AC 20 August 2026 JPMORGAN (

• As the Q2 reporting season is ending, the revenues of AI Pacific enterprises (Asia Pacific Artificial Intelligence companies have been coming in better than expected as Implementation Survey 2026, Aug 3rd) suggested that highlighted by our equity research team and by event average AI spend is expected to rise from 4.5% of press reports. expenses plus capex over the last 12 months to 5.8% over the next 12 months. If this is representative of a broader • Faster revenue growth makes the sector’s capital-intensity global pool of large enterprises behind the MSCI AC look more sustainable, provided that revenues ultimately translate into durable margins and adequate returns on World ex China universe, and if those companies collec- invested capital. The central question is whether the AI tively generate around $30tr of expenses plus capex, then ecosystem — model providers, AI cloud providers, hyper- a 5.8% AI-spend share would imply roughly $1.7tr of AI scalers and neoclouds — can collectively generate enough spending over the next 12 months. revenue and profit to justify the rapidly rising stock of • To reach, for example, $2.5tr of AI-related spending by capital being deployed into AI infrastructure. The answer 2030, the required enterprise-spend share would need to depends not just on headline revenue growth, but also on rise further. If the global enterprise expense-plus-capex depreciation, margins, utilization, pricing power, and base grows broadly in line with nominal GDP, the denom- whether revenues are measured on a gross or net basis inator could rise from $30tr today to roughly $36tr-$38tr across the value chain. by 2030, depending on the exact timing and nominal growth assumption. On that basis, $2.5tr of AI spend • This capital stock is rising because of the build-out of AI would imply an AI-spend share of roughly 6.5%–7.0% of data centers. Estimates of cumulative AI data-center-relat- ed capex from 2026 to 2030 vary significantly. Our col- total expenses plus capex. This is a meaningful increase leagues in credit research have projected around $5.5tr…