JPM International Market Intell | Morning Briefing 2026 08 10

20 SECONDS: Cyclical and Secular at nice intersection. Let’s GO(LD)! Tech on the way up. Update on Memory. Catalysts & Positioning.

• Markets fairly subdued at the start to the week. Crude strengthens this am amid latest setback in reopening talks - Iran issued hardline demands vs Trump “low-keying it”. Once again, military realities shape the view.

• Cyclical and Secular considerations are at a nice intersection • The big picture is supportive: 1) The Global Composite PMI is consistent with above-potential global GDP growth and JPM Econ made a material upgrade to 2H26 global growth forecasts; 2) Q2 earnings are tracking strong and JPM just raised the 2026 S&P 500 to 8,000 (7,800 prev); 3) Schlegel’s TPM remains attractive (after a buy signal triggered about 2 weeks ago).

• Secular Themes were at the top of the launchpad last week (incl. Critical Minerals, Precious Metals, Miners, Defence, Space, Quantum, Cyber etc.) and there are still interesting drawdowns to buy across Security and Resilience Initiatives and Strategic Assets. • We entered July long SXPP and Gold. We think the US-Japan joint JPY intervention has reinforced the case on XAU. After all, does not it all mean that reserve managers can’t sell $ in unlimited quantities? • The AI/MOMO correction is over but on the way up, we expect higher participation and thematic dispersion in Tech. This means pockets of Software (Alternative AM too?) on commoditization of LLMs + Hyperscalers on a dramatically improved CAPEX/ROI narrative should have more upside too. • Memory embodies the dispersion point even if fundamentals still look solid. JPM Jay Kwon just raised Memory TAM for 26-28 by 4-8% and expects S/D shortage to further tighten in 27. Memory demand broadening out from GPU to CPU remains a key source of potential upside surprises.

• Key catalysts incl. US CPI, PPI, Retail Sales; UK GDP; Tencent & AMAT earnings.