JPM International Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing: 20 SECONDS

20 SECONDS: CPI Scenarios. Korea vol drops. Odds of a quick US-Iran deal recedes. Chips competing on financing. Edge inference.

• US CPI the main risk event this week. Positioning for Equities is cleaner (vs Bonds) but rates appear sensitive to inflation spikes and the Equity-10Y Yield correlation is quite negative. That’s why a hawkish print would have a larger impact in Drew’s scenario analysis. Gold could extend on a soft release.

• Mixed and quieter session overnight. Korea moving higher for a second day as both realized and implied vol continues to normalize while the interesting gap to Taiwan memory tries to close. HK still seeing some aggressive rotation with biotechs the main beneficiaries - Global Pharma is truly emerging as a safe even.

• Brent is near $88 as Trump laid out sweeping new terms. Military realities + declining Oil Inventories point at declining appetite for serious escalation so a deal remains the base case. That said, Tehran could see an advantage in keeping Trump

entangled in the war ahead of the midterms. All told, odds that SoH normalizes by YE are back to Aug 1st (47%).

• In Tech, AI chip firms are no longer simply competing on technical specifications (speed, cost, power consumption, etc.) and software capabilities. Increasingly, capital is critical piece of the value proposition. That’s how I would read NVDA’s effort to mobilize $500bn in financing for hyperscalers, AI labs and enterprises.

• A lot of interesting techniques – distillation, quantization, speculative decoding – behind Meta’s Muse Glimmer. Edge inference is another (medium-term) headwind to the pricing power of model developers and helps dispersion in Tech.