JPM International Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

20 SECONDS: Hynix buybacks are positive. Not the easiest month for alpha spreads. USDT Buybacks don’t address fundamentals. Debasification and Debasement. A more disperse and broader Tech leadership.

• Asia broadly higher this AM as softer global rates support risk. Participation is wide but Tech is driving the advance. JPM Jay Kwon views SK Hynix buybacks as positive and expects sentiment to improve from here.

• Net risk on the books helps but it is not the easiest month again for alpha spreads.

• The increase in long-end Treasury buybacks is widely seen as a deliberate effort to stem the tide of rising long-end yields (i.e. similar to Operation Twist), rather than simply a market-functioning measure.

• The timing is highly unusual (August refunding was just 2w ago); there is nothing wrong in market functioning; and JPM Rates Strategists see a through- line here across a number of recent policy actions from Treasury (e.g. the EURJPY intervention, the tweak to the guidance etc.).

• Buybacks are a temporary tool because they ultimately do not address the underlying fiscal drivers of term premia. Similar actions from other DMOs globally have all had temporary effects on the term structure. Meanwhile, US gross national debt crossed $40T for the first time on yesterday.

• This setup reinforces the debasement trades which we continue to express via Gold and Miners. JPM Jay Barry thinks this could even contribute to higher term premium over time

• Our view remains one of a more dispersed and broader Tech leadership.

• Some attribute recent Semis pressure on OpenAI & Anthropic ARR… I wouldn’t be overly bearish on this. Look at pre-IPO tokenized prices, acceleration in combined ARR growth + chances that Anthropic might have shifted to net reporting of ARR, CODEX user growth, trend in token volumes, the bounce in token expenditure index etc.

• Most likely, a mix of residual vol from the factors, increasing evidence of LLM Commoditization (+ software but not negative hyperscalers) and focus on PA data center restrictions which could impact overall data centre construction

• The Iran situation is “status quo”. Military realities (now debasification being discussed)+ declining Oil Inventories (& China now adding to Oil reserves) point at US preference for an "unprecedented" economic pressure campaign rather than restarting hostilities…but Iran’s near-term incentives could be different. More oil than most realize continue to make it out of Hormuz but Crack spreads (not Brent) are the thing to watch.