JPM Interntational Market Intell | Morning Briefing 2026 08 06

20 SECONDS: Cyclical + Secular convergence. Gold returns to limelight. Macro MOMO extends. Evolving role of HFs & retail investors for global tech.

• Equities took a breather yesterday after Tuesday’s sharp rally (SPX total call volume highest on record). APAC Tech weakness mirroring US overnight, with Memory and Hardware lagging.

• Secular and Cyclical considerations reinforce each other. Gold/Miners/Critical Minerals; Cyber and Defense amongst top global thematics. Copper has been a key focus for miners – with Trump’s attendance at a State Department roundtable with mining executives tomo a catalyst. Cyber risks growing following recent wave of attacks, reinforcing our view on Tech/Thematic Dispersion (D1’s Security Software basket at multi-year highs). On Tech, watch Robotics IPO in China – China’s 2026 production volume is expected to account for 70% of the global total, supported by gov policy.

• Gold returns to the limelight – we have liked playing this via 3–6m call spreads/ratios. Commodities desk is busy, with a lot of topside interest coming

through. Risk reversal back into positive territory; CB buying resumes (Bank of Korea returned after a 13y pause); China gold consumption increased in H1; technical levels broken (50dma). 4500 is the level to watch.

• Macro picture continues to improve – Iran & Oman reached an agreement on a proposed shipping route, helping sustain move lower in Energy. July global composite output PMI points to a building cyclical lift heading into 2H26, with the index rising to 52.6 on strong services. The rebound in the employment PMI supports econ’s view for sustained gains in hiring through YE.

• Europe’s macro recovery has been notable. Reflecting July PMIs’ improving breadth across sectors & countries, Econ raised their 3Q GDP forecast to 1.25%ar (from 1%) – well above the ECB’s 0.5%.

• In the latest Flows & Liquidity, Nikos sees extent of July losses structurally reducing capacity of TMT Equity Sector & Multi Strat HFs to hold tech exposures, with dependence on retail investors increasing longer-term. Retail Radar has seen net buying resume in Memory and Semis, along Tech ETFs, with single-stock selling reflecting profit-taking in hyperscalers and software post-earnings.

• Word is that the best July Recap on the Street is now out