JPM Retail Radar Retail Blinks as Rates Swing Sept 16

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 16 September 2026

Retail Radar Sep 16 – Retail Blinks as Rates Swing

Retail Trading Activity Overview Equity Strategy and Quantitative Research

• In line with expectations, the Fed unanimously raised interest rates 25bps to Arun Jain AC 3.75-4%, thereby removing “a dose of accommodation” — a comment ( addressed in our US economist’s report. Amid a confluence of higher oil, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC higher rates (e.g. 10y yields repeatedly testing the 5% level) and heightened AI Shizuka Suga, CFA AC angst, retail flows turned materially weaker last week — 2%ile overall, ( with ETF inflows at 1y lows (-2.0z) and single-name flows turning negative at a mere 12%ile, Figure 7. From a broader investor positioning perspective, R D tilIrfseacn T E F S P d k h u y o v J.P. Morgan Securities LLC crowding in the Rates factor is now matching Momentum crowding levels Ana Pous Avila (Figure 5), fueled by a prolonged Higher-For-Longer environment (Figure 6). d tilrsaeco M m w C R F u v g n h M m C R F y g u d n tlirsaeco ( As we look ahead and “the dots delivered a clear message that the Committee J.P. Morgan Securities LLC sees another hike this year as likely appropriate”, report, what are the implications for equities? Our report argues that a shallow hiking cycle (i.e., William Matheson ( a reversal of last year's insurance cuts) should be manageable for equities, provided the earnings backdrop remains strong and the geopolitical J.P. Morgan Securities LLC situation in the Middle East remains contained. An inverted "U" Khuram Chaudhry relationship between 10y and S&P 500 multiples backed by history suggests ( that equities can withstand a 10y trending toward ~6%, with sector leadership hinging on the shape of the curve — all this conditional on the current J.P. Morgan Securities plc hypergrowth regime persisting, with earnings durability the focal point. Bhupinder Singh AC ( • A closer look at flows shows retail investors have been net buyers of single stocks mid-session these past four days, Figure 8, before turning into net sellers y u h k 1 p P S F E T R m tilIrf()seacn v o d 2

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC in the afternoon, Figure 7 — a faded echo of early August, report, when end-of- E D u y o v tilIrfseacn k d P S F T R h

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas AC day net selling in stocks was driven largely by post-hyperscaler-earnings ( performance and retail selling rips. This time, however, the reversal resulted from a pronounced pivot in flows: Tech ex–Mag 7 shifted from net buying J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

mid-day to net selling in the afternoon, alongside an acceleration of net Past Issues: selling in Industrials. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 9/9 – Retail Reassesses Rates, Short-Term • One potential catalyst for the Tech ex Mag 7 bearishness was the AI safety Momentum Rotates debate that reignited the Semis vs Software narrative as markets reopened on 9/2 – Energy over Software, Precious Metals over Miners Monday. SemiAnalysis separately showed how the share of compute allocated 8/26 - Earnings, Semis and Rates to pre-training has shrunk significantly (now below 15%), as end token 8/19 – Duration to Dividend demand has increased and post-training techniques became a major vector for 8/12 – From Earnings to Macro 8/5 - Hyperscaler Earnings Lift Sentiment model scaling. Overall, retail flows remained supportive of the Mag 7 — 7/29 - Momentum Unwind, Cutting Tech Losses notably NVDA, the top retail pick again this week— but shifted to net selling 7/22 - Momentum Cooldown, Hyperscaler Earnings 7/15 - Trading Earnings as Flows Cool across non–Mag 7 Semis, Hardware, and Software, Figure 1 and Figure 2 m .tilIrfsean v o P S R w …

7/8 - Split-the-Dip as Momentum Cools . A notable exception to the rule is ORCL, which enjoyed buying the dip flows M tlrf-saecbunohxg7T 7/1 - Same Playbook, Buying the Dip 6/24 - Remembers the Dip, MU Serves Right post-earnings on Friday (+3.3z) as it delivered a print that should help in 6/17 - Tech Craze Spillover to Communications addressing concerns around the durability of the pace of increases in RPO, 6/10 - Tech Selling amidst Drawdown…