JPM Euro area data wrap

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research 16 September 2026

• Manufacturing output was weak in July; PMI hints at near-term improvement Economic and Policy Research • ECB wage tracker grinds higher as energy price pressures remain significant Raphael Brun-Aguerre ( Euro area IP ex. construction declined 0.1%m/m sa in July, as we expected J.P. Morgan Securities plc (J.P.Morgan -0.1%, consensus -0.2%). Excluding Ireland, IP ex. construction is down 0.4%m/m sa. And looking at the main details, Euro area manufacturing output is down 0.3%m/m sa, with the ex. Ireland number down 0.7%m/m sa. After some moderate signs of frontloading during the early stages of the US-Iran war across energy-intensive sectors, Euro area manufacturing output has declined and overall remains weak, particularly across energy-intensive industries, which were hit hard by high gas and electricity prices in 2022. At the country level, the German manufacturing sector remains very weak despite signs of improvement on the demand side. The Spanish manufacturing sector, meanwhile, has outperformed the rest of the region. The manufacturing output picture is likely to improve in the near term. The Euro area manufacturing PMI survey has increased in recent months and now points to decent manufacturing output gains (of around 2% ar).

On the nominal side, the ECB wage tracker is important to monitor as energy price pressures continue to be significant. Today’s data show some marginal upward revisions to the data through March 2027, as more deals are taken into account. The data also now include information for 2Q27 and overall point to some trend up the growth rate of wage negotiation. After pointing to a 2.4%oya pace of negotiated wages in recent quarters, the ECB tracker points to a 2.6%oya gain in 4Q, rising to 2.8%oya in 2Q27. These data are broadly aligned with the ECB staff forecast, which assumes a modest rise in the inflation rate of compensation per employee over the coming quarters.

Euro area IP by industry Last quarter shows average of available monthly data %q/q, saar %m/m 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 Feb 26 Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Total ex. constr. - Mining & quar. - Manufacturing - Food, bev. & tob. Text., apparel & leather - Wood, paper & print. - Coke & ref. petrol pdcts - Chem. & pharma. - Rubber, plastic, & nonmetal - Basic metal & metal - Computer, electronic & optic. Mach. & equip. - Trailer & other trans. Furniture, jewel & music - Elec., gas, steam & air cond. Source: Eurostat, J.P.Morgan

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Raphael Brun-Aguerre Europe Economic Research ( September 2026 JPMORGAN

Euro area manufacturing output Jan 2023=100 Euro area Ireland 102 110

Euro area energy intensive manufacturing production Dec 2019=100 110 Non-energy intensive Energy intensive Source: Eurostat, J.P. Morgan

Euro area manufacturing production Dec 2019=100 Dec 2019=100 NRG intensive Other Pharma Auto