JPM US Market Intelligence | Afternoon Briefing: Stocks closed lower; CPI Scenario Analysis:

• MKT UPDATES – US/Iran, JPY and Tech flow updates from JPM Trading desk.

• DESK COMMENTARY – Trading desk views on Financials (end of the quarter summary) and Mag 7 headlines.

• US MKT INTEL: CPI SCENARIO ANALYSIS – Feroli sees Headline MoM printing +0.12% and Core MoM printing +0.22%. This equates to 3.4% YoY for Headline and 2.5% YoY for Core.

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We update the Bull / Bear debate and are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS)

• SPX -0.1%, NDX -0.3%, RTY -0.6%. WTI at $82.16, NatGas -64bps to $2.78, UK NatGas +1013bps to £1.4972, Gold +3bps to $4,392, Silver +3bps to $65.76, 10Y @ 4.707%, and VIX @ 15.46.

• US: Stocks closed lower; RTY lagged. Price actions was slightly more negative than the index level with 54% of the stocks closed lower in the SPX universe. Mag 7 performance diverged further: MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL outperformed, while NVDA and

AAPL lagged. Energy and Software are among the top performing baskets. Reopening trades (Airline and Housing) underperformed given the 4.8% surge in oil prices.

• EU/UK: Major markets closed mixed; SX5E outperformed and UK lagged. Stoxx 600 closed 3bp higher after reaching record high on Friday. Today’s price actions were largely muted across the board. Notable outperformers were largely linked to the 4% increase in Bent crude prices: Oil Sensitive Energy +1.9%, ME Escalation Longs +1.5% and Defence + 0.6%. UKX -0.4%, SX5E +0.2%, SXXP +0.0%, DAX +0.0%.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR) • US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: NFIB Small Business Optimism at 6am ET. ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8.15am ET. Existing Home Sales at 10am ET. • US EARNINGS TOMORROW: CAVA, CRWV, EROC, IMXI, KPTI, LEGN, LITE, NN, QNT, SMCI, USAR, VG • GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Japan) Money Stock M2 and Money Stock M3 at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

TODAY • US/IRAN WEEKEND HEADLINES (BRENDAN HENRICI) – Oil & energy products are opening this week with a modest bid following a (seemingly) escalatory weekend. The 1% move in the prompt this morning chases a weekend where 1) a deal, previously expected for Wednesday, remains elusive 2) attacks—both in chokepoints and on land on infrastructure—continued if not escalated and 3) Iran demands with respect to 1) not only are far apart from the US, the divide appears to be growing wider. On the attacks, over the weekend the Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery (~400kpd) and the UAE accused Iran of striking an ADNOC tanker with a missile as it crossed the Strait. Putting the latter attacks in