JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• MKT THOUGHTS – Thoughts on higher bond yields and headwinds to Equities.

• COLOR ON TREASURY ACTIONS – Jay Barry, Global Head of Rates Strategy, Meera Chandan, Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, and Ryan Ward, Sr. Rates / Macro Sales, give us their views on yesterday’s moves

• FED MINUTES – Mike Hanson assesses the minutes in his latest note

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

• ROADMAP TO Q4 – we flag the key events for US markets into quarter’s end and offer thoughts on the Bull and Bear outcomes for each event.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX -0.1%, NDX +0.0%, RTY -0.2%. WTI +234bps at $87.84, NatGas -185bps to $2.76, UK NatGas +200bps to £1.5951, Gold -60bps to $4,488, Silver -45bps to $66.68, 10Y @ 4.670%, and VIX @ 15.21.

• US: Futures are flat as bond yields move higher after yesterday’s Treasury moves; yields are 1-3bp higher as the curve bear steepens. USD remains weaker. Cmdtys are led by Energy as WTI moves towards $90/bbl, Base over Precious, and Ags are mixed. Keep an eye on AI with Anthropic / OpenAI said to see MoM ARR accelerate higher. Pre-mkt, Memory / Semis are leading the Tech tape after a stronger APAC Tech session; Mag7 / Software are lagging. Cyclicals are seeing broad-based strength. Defensives are lagging with HC seeing profit-taking. Momentum continuing to unwind has triggered reversals lower from pre-mkt strength, over the past few sessions. This appears to be quant / systematic rather than discretionary players. Retail activity remains muted.

• EU/UK: Major markets are mostly lower with Italy / Spain in the green. Regional curves are bear steepening. Top D1 baskets include Energy, Semis, Gold Miners with top laggards including Luxury, Short USD plays, and Defense. Thematically, Recession / Growth are leading, Beta / Value are lagging; Cyclicals flat to Defensives. UKX -0.2%, SX5E -0.2%, SXXP -0.1%, DAX -0.5%. CSI +0.1%, HSI +0.8%, NKY +1.4%, ASX +0.3%, KOSPI +5.9%.

• US MACRO DATA: Philly Fed Business Outlook, Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30am ET. Leading Index at 10am ET. • US EARNINGS: DE, ROST, WMT • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Germany) PPI at 2:00am ET. (Canada) IP at 8:30am ET. (UK) GfK Consumer Confidence at 7:01pm ET. (Japan) CPI at 7:30pm ET. (Japan) PMIs at 8:30pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Given the volume of client questions, we thought we would add some context to the current situation. Some are looking at 10Y yields above 5.25% or 30Y yield above 5.50% as signals to sell equities. The last time the 10Y yield was above 5.25% was 2007 and the last time the