JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• LAST WEEK – a quick look at the rotation and Momentum factor unwind

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – we are Tactically Bullish, albeit with lower conviction, and we update the Monetization Menu.

• ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS – this week, we review some FICC thoughts, Flash PMIs, Jackson Hole, Japan / BOJ, Momentum, NVDA earnings preview, Retail earnings, and recent Treasury Dept actions.

• POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Weekly Wrap | Making Sense of the Chop & Re-Thinking Momentum

• BOND YIELDS & EQUITY IMPACT – we give our thoughts on why higher yields are not a death sentence for stocks. This is a reposting from the Aug 20 Morning Briefing

• ROADMAP TO Q4 – we flag the key events for US markets into quarter’s end and offer thoughts on the Bull and Bear outcomes for each event

• TRADING DESK CALL – FX Strategy & Trading Views. Meera Chandan, Co-Head of FX Strategy. Kelvin Hebburn, Head of EMEA Spot Trading. Tom Cobbold, Head of EMEA FX Options Trading. Today at 9am. Please register here

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.6%, RTY -0.1%. WTI -192bps at $85.39, NatGas -58bps to $2.76, UK NatGas +92bps to £1.6407, Gold +74bps to $4,637, Silver -36bps to $68.75, 10Y @ 4.708%, and VIX @ 15.90.

• US: Futures are lower with Tech underperforming as the market focuses on NVDA / MRVL earnings this week; AI theme is pressured globally. Bond yields are lower, down 2-3bp as the curve shifts lower and USD is bid with the Dollar stronger versus G7. In cmdtys, oil / ags are pulling the group lower on reports of more than 15mm bbl leaving SoH over the weekend; gold / base are bid as silver sells off as part of AI weakness. Pre-mkt, Memory / Semis are weaker, dragging down the Tech tape. Mag7 names are mixed and Software is up. Defensives are leading Cyclicals ex-Materials as Metals/Miners look to extend their bullish run. Warsh’s speech Friday at 10am is the macro focus for the week but we also get updates on PCE, which has been de-risked with the CPI/PPI prints, income / spending, housing data, and some regional Fed activity indicators.

• EU/UK: Major markets are mostly higher, led by Spain with France / Germany / SX5E lagging. Regional bond yields are lower with curves bull flattening. Top D1 baskets include Freight Sensitives, Anti-Involution, Defense, and Short USD plays while things like Oil, Software, and Gold are lower mostly driven by profit taking as the fundamentals remain intact. Thematically, Quality / Momentum are leading with ResVol / Cyclicals lagging; Growth over Value. Both US and EMEA seems to be shrugging off the weaker APAC session, which saw Tech / AI plays come for sale. UKX +0.2%, SX5E -0.0%, SXXP +0.1%, DAX +0.0%. CSI - 1.2%, HSI -1.9%, NKY -0.7%, ASX +0.5%, KOSPI -3.1%.

• US MACRO DATA: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index at 8.30am ET. • US EARNINGS: N/A • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: N/A