JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing: Futs are flat; Retail Sales preview:

• MKT THOUGHTS – Thoughts into Retail Sales today; Views on PPI and rates yesterday.

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We update the Bull / Bear debate and are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.1%, NDX +0.1%, RTY -0.0%. WTI +62bps at $81.75, NatGas +114bps to $2.76, UK NatGas +123bps to £1.5031, Gold +7bps to $4,354, Silver +37bps to $64.73, 10Y @ 4.653%, and VIX @ 14.56.

• US: Futures are flat this morning amid quiet news flow this morning. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly unchanged with MSFT and META showing some modest declines. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher, led by 30y. One Reuters article reported that BOJ is eyeing September rate hike and faster pace of tightening: OIS now sees 81% probability of a September hike (vs. ~65% last Friday). Commodities are modestly higher: oil moved 0.6% higher; gold added 0.1% this morning.

• EU/UK: Major markets are mostly higher; Germany led. Thematically, Software, AI Disruption, EU Defence and Momentum Short are among the top performing baskets, while

Semi and Gold Equities lagged. This morning, Eurozone GDP print 0.4% QoQ, unchanged from the preliminary reading. UKX -0.0%, SX5E +0.2%, SXXP +0.0%, DAX +0.8%.

• US MACRO DATA: Retail Sales at 8.30am ET. U. of Mich. Sentiment/Expectations at 10am ET. Business Inventories at 10am ET. • US EARNINGS: CELC, FBRX, MANE, MOVE, MPLT, QXO, TE • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (France) CPI (revision) at 2:45am ET. (Eurozone) GDP SA and Employment at 5am ET. (Canada) Mfg Sales at 8:30am ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

After the combination of dovish NFP and inflation prints for July, today’s Retail Sales will be important to assess the near-term direction on bond yields and the goldilocks narrative. See our thoughts below on Retail Sales, yesterday’s Tech flow (from Brian Heavey) and PPI views:

• THOUGHTS INTO RETAIL SALES TODAY – Feroli expects Retail Sales to print -0.4% MoM vs. 0.1% survey vs. 0.2% prior (here). He expects the decline to be driven by gasoline spending, vehicle dealers and auto sales. He expects the Control Group to print -0.3% vs. 0.3% survey vs. 0.5% prior. This is driven by both technical factors (Amazon moved their Prime Day promotion from July to June) and unwinding of the tax stimulus. While as the Street is expecting a modest increase in both Headline and Control Group, if Feroli’s estimates come to fruition, we could see further pressure on bond yields, especially given the combination of dovish NFP and cooler PPI. While technical factors can contribute to one disappointed Retail Sales reading, we still remains a bullish view on the overall US consumer