July Has Been A Long Year Goldman's Top Quant Trader Warns Markets No Longer Ignoring What's Going On Under The Surface

"July Has Been A Long Year": Goldman's Top Quant Trader Warns Markets "No Longer Ignoring What's Going On" Under The Surface

BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY, JUL 27, 2026 - 06:45 PM US equity indices are finally starting to take note of the significant volatility that has lived under the surface for weeks. Goldman Sachs top derivatives trader, Brian Garrett, notes in his latest 'weekend prep' note that while some metrics of avg stock vol continue to register near the highs, other indicators on our dashboard are no longer ignoring what’s going on at the idiosyncratic level (look no further than SPX skew vs ATM implied)

This week brings two main highlights:

Earnings 34% of the spx mkt cap reports this week (spx = 1.7% implied move thru friday pm) with msft, meta, qcom, arm, aapl, amzn all this wk.

Major focus will be on the tech spenders (who are now asset heavy companies) as they open the kimono across both 1/ return on invested capital and, 2/ future capital expenditure plans AI capex has been rocket fuel for markets up until now, but investors are starting to push back… ●​ credit moved first (hyperscaler basket chart below), ●​ cds spreads moved second, ●​ hyperscaler individual implied vols have moved third, ●​ ndx implied vol has moved fourth, ●​ perhaps spx implied vol will move fifth? …