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Economics Research 14 August 2026 | 7:31AM EDT

ARGENTINA Alberto Ramos | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Mildly Higher-Than-Expected Inflation in July Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose by 2.1% mom in July, above the Bloomberg Sergio Armella | consensus and the median response in the most recent central bank expectations Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC survey, both of which stood at 2.0% month on month. Core inflation was 1.8% mom, Santiago Tellez while regulated prices rose 2.1% mom. Seasonal prices rose by a higher 4.5% mom. | On an annual basis, headline inflation rose to 33.8%, from 33.5% yoy in June and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

core inflation increased to 32.2% yoy, from 31.8% yoy.

Inflation interrupted in July the downwards trend that had started in April, partly reflecting stronger seasonal pressures, including tourism packages and hotel fares, but also higher rent (+3.9% mom in Buenos Aires). Seasonal prices rose by 4.5% mom in July, up from 3.4% mom in June. Core inflation remained below 2% for a third consecutive month, but it firmed to 1.8% mom from 1.6% mom in June. We have raised our year-end inflation forecast by 1.5pp to 30.5% and continue to see risks as moderately skewed to the upside.

1. Headline inflation printed at 2.1% mom in July. As a result, annual inflation increased to 33.8% yoy from 33.5% yoy in June. Core inflation came in at 1.8% mom, up from 1.6% mom in June, with the annual rate increasing to 32.2% yoy, from 31.8% yoy. 2. By divisions, prices in the recreation and culture category increased by 5.0% mom driven by higher tourism packages, and prices in restaurants and hotels rose by 2.8% mom due in part to seasonally higher hotel rates. On the lower side, clothing and footwear, in turn, declined by 1.3% mom. 3. The price of services increased by 2.9% mom, up from 2.5% mom in May and still outpacing goods prices, which rose 1.4% mom (down from the 2.0% increase in the prior month). Regulated prices, in turn, rose 2.1% mom, slightly below the 2.4% in the prior month. The price of seasonal items increased by 3.4%. 4. Except for January 2026, regulated price inflation has consistently run above core inflation since May 2025. Since President Milei took office, regulated prices have increased by 510% compared to the 305% increase of core prices.

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COLOMBIA Data Today: Manufacturing Production (Jun); we expect manufacturing production to print at 2.1% yoy in June, up from the -0.4% yoy in the previous month. Sequentially, manufacturing production firmed by 1.3% mom sa, adding to the 0.2% mom sa expansion in the previous month. With the April print, the statistical carryover for 2Q2026 stands at +1.6%, up from 0.8% qoq sa in 1Q26. The carryover for the full of 2026 stands at +1.7%. Manufacturing is normalizing after transitory disruptions, posting consecutive expansions this year.

Retail Sales (Jun); our forecast is for retail sales to register a 13.0% yoy expansion in June (vs. 11.7% yoy in the previous month). Core retail sales, which exclude vehicles & fuel, expanded by 10.9% yoy in May. Sequentially, core retail sales expanded by 1.1% mom sa in April, adding to the 0.8% mom sa Mar. variation. With the April print, the statistical carryover for 2Q2026 stands at +2.8% qoq sa, down from +3.1% qoq sa in 1Q26. The carryover for the full of 2026 tracks at +8.3%. Core retail sales momentum remains firm after a strong Q1, possibly reflecting the 23% minimum wage increase and a strong COP, with imported components accounting for the bulk of this trend. Manufacturing has slowly normalized after previous large disruptions in 4Q25. We expect some of the manufacturing tailwinds to lose some steam in upcoming months

ECUADOR The Trade Balance Declined in June Pressured by Higher Imports Bottom Line: Ecuador’s trade balance registered a US$203mn surplus in June. The reading compares to the US$651mn surplus in May and a US$706mn surplus posted a year ago. Exports were down 1.3% from a year ago and imports rose by 17.5%. Crude oil exports tracked at…