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Economics Research 17 August 2026 | 8:45AM EDT

ARGENTINA Alberto Ramos | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Data This Week: Tuesday: Budget Balance (July); we expect July’s budget balance to benefit from Sergio Armella | the extension of the deadline for filing and paying annual personal income tax Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC returns, which weighed on June’s result. In general, the government has continued its Santiago Tellez policy of fiscal restraint, consistent with a zero balance (primary surplus) throughout | 2026. As of June, the cumulative primary surplus reached 0.6% of GDP, while the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

overall balance surplus stood at 0.1% of GDP. Total government revenues have fallen 5.0% in real terms through June, and total expenditure is down by a somewhat lower 2.0% year-to-date.

Thursday: Economic activity Index (EMAE, June); we forecast a 3.5% year-on-year increase in real economic activity in June. The annual growth print should benefit from to additional working days compared to the same month in 2025. Sequentially, activity is expected to strengthen in June, though it likely edged lower in the second quarter, ending a series of seven consecutive quarterly gains.

Thursday: Trade Balance (July); we forecast a US$2.0bn trade surplus in June. Strong exports boosted the trade balance in the first half of 2026, and the energy trade balance posted a record high of US$3.6bn in the second quarter. The cumulative trade balance over the last 12 months rose to a record US$22.5bn surplus in June, approximately 3.2% of GDP, up from US$11.3bn (about 1.7% of GDP) by year-end 2025. The cumulative energy balance over the last twelve months is tracking at US$10.0bn, as high oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East have benefited Argentina’s energy exports.

BRAZIL Weaker Than Expected June Real GDP Growth Bottom Line: According to the central bank’s monthly GDP indicator (IBC-Br), real activity declined 0.64% mom sa in June, below consensus for -0.50% mom sa. The decline of activity in June was driven by industry and to a lesser extent services; agriculture & livestock rose. Non-farm GDP declined 0.91% mom sa (+0.3% sa from Dec-25; offsetting the 0.31% mom sa May increase). The year-over-year 2.35% print beat the 2.30% consensus. According to the IBC-Br index—an imperfect proxy for the National Accounts quarterly GDP—real activity grew 0.18% qoq sa during 2Q26, vs 1.23% qoq sa during 1Q26. The carryover for 3Q2026 sequential growth starts at -0.42% qoq sa, and for 2026 is tracking

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Going forward, we expect real activity to continue to benefit from federal fiscal transfers to low-income households with a high propensity to consume, expansion of real household labor and non-labor disposable income, the payroll-collateralized and other upcoming lending programs, the increase in the exemption threshold for personal income tax, measures to ease debt service, and a number of fiscal/quasi-fiscal/credit measures ahead of the Q4 election, mitigated by tight domestic monetary and financial conditions, rising inflation, high levels of household indebtedness, and low levels of economic slack (unemployment rate below the NAIRU and output gap in positive territory). Gross household real disposable income expanded to a high 2.5% yoy (3mma) in June (4.6% yoy a year ago), which, allied with a strong labor market backdrop, should support spending in the coming months.

1. According to the central bank’s monthly indicator of real GDP (IBC-Br) recorded a -0.64% mom sa variation in June, lower than the Bloomberg consensus for -0.50% mom sa. The May print was revised down by 4bp to 0.07% mom sa (Apr down by 14bp), and the May level down by 10bp. 2. The composition of the June real activity report was weak, dragged down by industry (-1.4% mom sa, +0.5% mom sa Apr), services (-0.5% mom sa, 0.1% mom sa Apr) and taxes (-1.0%). Agriculture & livestock rose 1.0% mom sa. Overall, non-farm GDP declined 0.9% mom sa (up 0.3% from Dec-25). 3. In annual terms, real GDP…