LATAM Today August 18, 2026

Economics Research 18 August 2026 | 9:01AM EDT

ARGENTINA Alberto Ramos | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Data This Week: Today: Budget Balance (July); we expect July’s budget balance to benefit from the Sergio Armella | extension of the deadline for filing and paying annual personal income tax returns, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC which weighed on June’s result. In general, the government has continued its policy Santiago Tellez of fiscal restraint, consistent with a zero balance (primary surplus) throughout 2026. | As of June, the cumulative primary surplus reached 0.6% of GDP, while the overall Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

balance surplus stood at 0.1% of GDP. Total government revenues have fallen 5.0% in real terms through June, and total expenditure is down by a somewhat lower 2.0% year-to-date.

COLOMBIA Data This Week: Today: GDP (2Q26); we expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.4% yoy in 2Q26 (+1.3% qoq sa), driven by a combination of trend and cyclical components in public administration and retail sales, recovering manufacturing, and strong energy demand. On a quarter-on-quarter and seasonally-adjusted basis, real GDP expanded by 0.6% qoq sa during the first quarter of 2026, up from a flat print in the previous quarter. The composition was strong, with the headline reading boosted by consumption and fixed investment. Domestic demand rebounded by 0.8% qoq sa— as did imports—but exports contracted. The supply side featured recovering manufacturing, persistently robust arts & leisure, and strong public administration owing to transitory increases in hiring and rising public salaries ahead of the electoral season. The economy’s momentum firmed in Q1 after a very weak 4Q25 that was artificially distorted by transitory factors, which also boosted 3Q25.

Today: Economic Activity (Jun); we expect real economic activity as measured by the ISE monthly indicator to expand 3.6% yoy in June (-0.3% mom sa), down from 4.1% yoy in the previous month. The ISE real economic activity indicator expanded by 0.7% mom sa in May, accelerating from 0.3% mom sa in the previous month, and adding to the string of expansions since Dec. ‘25. The headline reading increase was mostly driven by solid tertiary activities (0.9% mom sa; services, energy supply, and commerce)—especially the arts, public administration sector given payments related to organizing the elections, and the retroactive minimum wage payments to public teachers. With the May print, the carryover for 2Q26 stands at a solid +1.8% qoq sa (vs. +0.8% qoq sa in 1Q26 per the monthly indicator) and for the whole of 2026 at

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Tomorrow: Trade Balance (Jun); we expect the trade balance to print a US$0.9bn deficit in June, which would bring the trade balance very close to its record-high level of US$16.8bn on a 12-month rolling basis. The trade deficit narrowed to US$16.2bn in May on a 12-month basis. The trade balance has not recorded a surplus since December 2017.

ECUADOR Benign Inflation Reading in July but Consumer Price Data Was Distorted by New CPI Basket Bottom Line: The July consumer price report introduced a new CPI series with an updated composition, weight structure, and base year (July 2025-June 2026 = 100). Under the new series, consumer prices declined by 0.09% mom in July despite a 29.1% mom increase in electricity driven by further normalization of tariffs after a one-off subsidy affected electricity bills in the prior two months (-42.4% mom in May and +33.1% in June). The annual headline inflation reading declined by 27bp to 1.39% yoy. Core prices excluding food and energy (a GS estimate) declined by 1.06% mom, affected by the new product weights, with the annual reading declining by 1.13pp to 1.25% yoy. As an example of the impact of the new weight structure, fuel prices declined by 2.62% mom in July, but diesel prices were up 1.4% in the month, low-octane gasoline prices rose 1.75% and prices at the pump for the unregulated high-octane gasoline increased by a large 7.66% in July.

1. The July consumer…