Navigating China Internet eCommerce tracker July industry online retail GMV +3

Equity Research 17 August 2026 | 11:22PM HKT

NAVIGATING CHINA INTERNET: ECOMMERCE TRACKER

July industry online retail GMV +3%; eCommerce & Meituan earnings expectations

Ronald Keung, CFA | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Lincoln Kong, CFA | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

July national online retail goods GMV grew +3% yoy vs. +4% in June, with Steve Qiu | sequential deceleration in clothing/other expenditures, while partially offset by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. improvement in home appliances (-2%, vs. -9% in June) and communication devices Damian Xie (+20%, vs. +17% in June), supported by favorable base effects. Overall retail sales | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. growth moderated to +0.6% yoy in July which came in below consensus Iris Xiao expectations (vs. GSe: +1.5% yoy; BBG consensus: +1.5% yoy), vs. +1.0% in June, | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. driven by slower food/jewelry/cosmetics growth, at +5%/-10%/+7% respectively (vs. +8%/-3%/+13% in June). Factoring in July data, we now expect 3QE online GMV and parcel volume growth of 4%/4% (prior: 4%/5%) and fine-tune our 2026E industry online GMV and parcel volume growth forecasts to 4%/5% yoy respectively (prior: 5%/5%).

Earnings expectations into Alibaba, Meituan and PDD results (see our earlier What to expect into mega-cap prints): Alibaba (to report on Aug 20): We expect investor focus to center around AI capex funding, cloud/GPUaaS margin upside over the next few quarters, with the new cloud + T-Head segment and tight compute, Qwen’s strategy, and eCommerce cash flow to maximize core cash flow to fund AI investments: 1) We forecast CMR at -8% yoy (vs. +1% in Mar-quarter), where we estimate the gap between the new and old definitions of CMR (primarily reflecting the merchant rebate policy on achieving GMV targets) widens to 9ppts (vs. 7ppts in Mar-quarter) due to the larger GMV scale quarter. 2) We expect acceleration in cloud growth to 45% (with focus on whether cloud margins could be a potential upside on strong AI compute demand/price increases), and 3) Rmb10bn investment into Quick Commerce (where UE improves to Rmb-1.7 from Rmb-3.2 in the Mar quarter); Meituan (to report late-Aug): We expect overall focus to be around its food delivery UE outlook, potential for recovery of IHT segment profit growth and margin level in the medium term, Keeta progress, and AI strategy update. We expect an inflection of core local commerce EBIT (GSe Rmb5.8bn/V.A. consensus Rmb3.2bn, vs. Rmb-2.0bn in 1Q26), driven by improving 2Q food delivery UE (GSe: Rmb0.4, vs. Rmb-1.0 in 1Q26) and stable IHT margin at 25%. We expect food delivery sequential

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Goldman Sachs Navigating China Internet: eCommerce tracker

+0.2/+0.2 qoq UE improvement per order over 3Q26E and 4Q26E on further subsidy normalization, in-sync with our estimates for Alibaba Quick Commerce UE of +0.3/+0.2 qoq improvement; PDD (to report late-Aug): We forecast PDD domestic main platform GMV/OMS of +3%/-3% yoy, vs. the reported JD Retail revenue of -5% yoy, with focus around OMS/Temu profitability outlook and grocery strategy.

A recap on our recent JD NDR takeaways: Key investor focus areas/topics discussed included 1) JD Retail revenue growth inflecting into 2H26, with July growth outpacing June (which was the fastest month of growth in 2Q); 2) stable profit margin outlook for JD Retail into 3Q; 3) further sequential food delivery loss narrowing; 4) rapid Joybuy/Jingxi growth, with disciplined, dynamically-reviewed investment scale; 5) strategic AI/physical AI investment leveraging JD’s physical-world operating data; and 6) continued strong commitment to shareholder returns.

Other highlights for June by category/segment:

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