LATAM Today August 6, 2026

Economics Research 6 August 2026 | 8:10AM EDT

ARGENTINA Alberto Ramos | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Data This Week: Tomorrow: Industrial Production (June); we forecast a 0.5% year-on-year decline Sergio Armella | of manufacturing activity in June. In Argentina, June had 21 working days this year Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC versus 19 in 2025, which should provide a positive tail wind to the year-over-year Santiago Tellez growth reading. Manufacturing and construction activity improved in May, but | high-frequency indicators have been volatile in recent months. In May, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

manufacturing activity increased by 0.4% sa (-5.7% yoy) from the previous month, only partially offsetting the 1.8% mom sa decline in April. Construction activity, in turn, rose by a notable 6.4% mom sa (+4.1% yoy) following a 3.6% mom sa decline in April.

BRAZIL Copom: 25bp Selic Cut to 14.00%; Agnostic Forward Guidance Bottom Line: The Copom delivered another 25bp rate cut, driving the Selic to 14.00% (unanimous decision in line with GS and consensus). The policy statement was shorter, focused and broadly neutral. The characterization of the short-term growth and inflation cyclical dynamics was slightly conservative: gradual moderation of economic activity, albeit at a resilient level, with mixed signs across sectors, and a “heated” labor market. The balance of risks for inflation did not change, with both upside and downside risks still characterized as higher than usual, “with upside bias”. The Copom closely monitors the additional de-anchoring of inflation expectations at longer horizons inasmuch as that impacts price formation and increases the cost of disinflation. No explicit Forward Guidance: the Copom reaffirmed “serenity and caution in the conduction of monetary policy” in the current environment marked by a significant increase in uncertainty, unanchored inflation, and heightened risks around its baseline scenario, and it will monitor the evolution of the macro baseline in order to preserve “an adequate monetary restriction to assure the convergence of inflation to the target”. The Copom stressed again that given “the dynamics of the risks associated to the evolution of prices”, the magnitude of the calibration cycle will be set in light of new information while always aiming to ensure that inflation converges to the target. The conditional inflation forecasts did not change in a significant way: headline inflation forecasted at 3.8% by 4Q27 (vs 3.7% in Jun), and unchanged at 3.2% for 1Q28. We expect the mid-Sept meeting to be a live one for a follow-up Selic cut but at this juncture we see limited near-term policy room for additional significant accommodation. We will assess our Selic trajectory following the release of the minutes next week.

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1. The Copom cut the Selic rate by another 25bp, driving the Selic to 14.00%; a unanimous decision in line with market pricing, our forecast, and market consensus. 2. The Copom states that “economic activity remains consistent with an overall trajectory of deceleration in 2026”, and that it closely monitors the additional de-anchoring of inflation expectations at longer horizons inasmuch as that impacts price formation and increases the cost of disinflation. 3. No Explicit Forward Guidance. The Copom reaffirmed “serenity and caution in the conduction of monetary policy” in the current environment marked by a significant increase in uncertainty, unanchored inflation, and heightened risks around its baseline scenario, and it will monitor the evolution of the macro baseline in order to preserve “an adequate monetary restriction to assure the convergence of inflation to the target”. The Copom stressed again that given “the dynamics of the risks associated to the evolution of prices”, the magnitude of the calibration cycle will be set in light of new information while always aiming to ensure that inflation converges to the target. 4. The conditional inflation forecasts did not change in a significant way. The…