LATAM Week Ahead Quarterly Inflation Report in Mexico

Economics Research 21 August 2026 | 3:10PM EDT

LATAM Week Ahead: Quarterly Inflation Report in Mexico; 2027 Spending Budget in Colombia

[1] In Mexico, the central bank will publish the Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) Alberto Ramos | on August 26th. The 2Q26-QIR will contain updated forecasts for growth and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC headline/core inflation over the relevant horizon for monetary policy. Sergio Armella | Furthermore, in the 2Q26-QIR the central bank is likely to update the overall Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC growth-inflation balance of risks (though likely not the forward guidance) vis-à-vis Santiago Tellez the August 6 MPC meeting policy statement given that for the QIR, the central bank | has a larger set of data than it did when the MPC last met: 1H August inflation and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC the 2Q26 real GDP 2nd vintage print.

On inflation, we expect the central bank to repeat the August 6 MPC meeting forecasts. This would entail headline/core inflation forecasts for end-2026 at 3.5%/3.5% (unchanged and +10bp, respectively, from the previous QIR) with convergence to the 3.0% target still optimistically expected for 4Q2027.

On growth, in the 1Q26-QIR the MPC was forecasting real GDP growth between 0.5% and 1.7% (midpoint 1.1%) for 2026, but real activity surprised to the upside during 2Q26 (1.5% qoq sa). Given the firm 2Q26 print, the central bank is likely to upgrade the 2026 1.1% forecast by at least 25bp, with the 0.5% upper-limit revised by 50bp.

In order to calibrate the monetary policy path, we will pay particular attention to the characterization of the balance of risks to inflation and growth, and the list and ranking order of both upside and downside risks to inflation and growth.

We will also pay attention to the revised forecast for the output gap and labor market slack estimates. Easing labor pressures could add policy room to extend the easing cycle later in 2H2026.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs LATAM Week Ahead

Central Bank Projected Inflation Path

Headline Inflation (% yoy) Mar-26 May-26 Jun-26 Aug-26 Variation from Mar-26 QIR Jun-26 QIR MPC MPC MPC MPC Jun-26 MPC 4Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

Core Inflation (% yoy) Mar-26 May-26 Jun-26 Aug-26 Variation from Mar-26 QIR Jun-26 QIR MPC MPC MPC MPC Jun-26 MPC 4Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

Assumptions: Real GDP Growth 2025 0.6% 0.5% 2026 1.6%; [1.0% to 2.2%] 1.1%; [0.5% to 1.7%] 2027 2.0%; [1.2% to 2.8%] 2.1%; [1.3% to 2.9%] Current Account (% GDP) 2025 -0.4% -0.5% 2026 -1.5% to -0.8% -1.3% to -0.6% 2027 -1.8% to -0.9% -1.8% to -0.9% Output Gap (% GDP) 2025 -1.2% -1.2% 2026 -2.1% -2.5% 2027 -2.3% -2.7%

Source: Banxico , Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

[2] In Colombia, the De la Espriella administration is scheduled to unveil the revised 2027 spending budget next week. Congress agreed to Finance Minister Gómez’s request to return the original bill, submitted by the Petro administration, in order to address a COP$30tn revenue shortfall (approximately 1.5% of GDP) in the headline figure. Minister Gómez has indicated resubmission by August 26, ahead of the statutory deadline of August 30.

The revised budget should provide the first concrete indication of the administration’s near-term fiscal consolidation intentions. Prior to taking office, Minister Gómez signaled a spending reduction of at least 1% of GDP and stated that the 2027 budget would not