Macro at a Glance Latest views and forecasts

Economics Research 17 September 2026 | 4:40PM EDT

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Download PDF | Download PowerPoint Allison Nathan | To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click “Follow.” Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Jenny Grimberg Changes to flag this week: | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC n Revised our Fed forecast and now expect the Fed to deliver a second 25bp hike Ashley Rhodes | in October (vs. our previous expectation that September would be the only hike) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC following the more hawkish-than-expected September FOMC meeting. n Raised several of our bond yield forecasts, including our YE26 10y Treasury yield forecast to 4.75% (from 4.40%), our YE26 10y Bund yield forecast to 3.25% (from 3.00%), and our 10y Gilt yield forecast to 5.00% (from 4.40%) following recent changes to our Fed, ECB, and BoE forecasts. n Lowered our 4Q26/1Q27 Euro area growth forecasts to 0.15%/0.20% (from 0.19%/0.28%) and raised our peak core/headline inflation forecasts to 2.7%/3.8% (from 2.6%/3.6%) given the recent surge in energy prices. n Lowered our 2026 China real GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.6%, yoy) following weaker-than-expected activity data.

Watching n Globally, we expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.6% yoy in 2026 amid headwinds from higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict. We expect global core inflation to end the year at 2.8%, reflecting a further normalization in shelter and wage inflation but a boost from energy price passthrough and lingering but fading tariff effects. n In the US, we expect real GDP growth of 2.2% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting subdued consumer spending growth in the second half of the year but a boost from the AI boom via higher equity wealth as well as strong capex. We expect core PCE inflation of 3.2% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, boosted by the lingering effects of tariffs, energy price passthrough, and AI demand exaggerated by measurement issues, with it falling to near 2% in 2027 as those effects subside. We expect the unemployment rate to end 2026 at 4.2%. n We expect the Fed to deliver one more 25bp hike in October to a peak policy rate range of 4.00-4.25%, though additional hikes beyond October are possible. n In the Euro area, we expect real GDP growth of 1.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting headwinds from elevated energy prices as well as subdued consumer

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs Macro at a Glance

confidence, though we expect growth to improve next year. We expect core inflation to rise to a peak of 2.7% yoy in 1Q27, reflecting energy price passthrough, before gradually declining to 2.0% by end-2028. n We expect the ECB to deliver one more 25bp hike in December to a peak policy rate of 2.75%, though we see a low hurdle for an additional hike. n In China, we expect real GDP growth of 4.5% yoy in 2026, reflecting broad-based export strength but headwinds from weak domestic demand. We expect CPI/PPI inflation to rise to 1.0%/2.0% yoy this year, largely owing to commodity price passthrough. n WATCH MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT. The situation in the Middle East remains fluid and we will be closely watching how the region’s energy exports as well as demand for its energy from key consumers like China continue to evolve, with risks to economies and markets growing the longer ME energy supply disruptions continue.

Global GDP vs. CAI US GDP vs. CAI

10 2026: 2027: 10 2026: 2027: 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.2

Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) -30 GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy) -30 GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy)

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

China GDP vs. CAI Euro area GDP vs. CAI

% Chg. China % Chg. Euro area 30

-20 Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) Historical GDP (yoy) Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate…