Market Intelligence US Morning Update

Equity Research 24 August 2026 | 8:41AM EDT

Market Intelligence: US Morning Update

Click “here” to listen to the US Morning Call. Chris Hussey | Stocks in Asia traded modestly lower Monday (with the exception of Australia) as Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Korea remains exceptionally volatile (down 3% overnight). In China, Hui Shan Sarah Herr | highlights a series of headwinds (one of which may be improving) in this week’s Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

“Three things in China.” July activity data was particularly weak amidst signs of fiscal Kshitij Garg | tightening. But the persistent home price declines we have seen for the better part of Goldman Sachs India SPL a decade in China did show some signs of moderating. See also Chelsea Song’s “China’s Broad-Based Export Strength to Persist Despite Limited AI Boost.”

European equities are little changed this morning on the back of a characteristically quiet mid-August weekend and with no major economic releases scheduled for today.

Across asset classes, yields on 10-year Treasuries are down 2bp but remain elevated above 4.70%. In commodities, front-month Brent oil is down 2% overnight to ~$91/bbl and Bitcoin is another 1% higher (now $78,000).

Focus on: chip relief. Allen Chang, Jim Schneider and team update our view on China semiconductor capacity in a series of notes this weekend, including: “CHIPS IV: China Semis self-sufficiency builds” and “Raising 2026-28 WFE estimates, driven by memory and foundry strength.” Bottom-line: China is building the capacity to put itself on a path to being able to supply its own chips and no longer rely on Taiwan foundries.

n Chinese firms have raised capex plans by 79% and our now on pace to spend $82bn building new plants in 2030e. China already supplies 70% of the chips it consumes.

What does it mean? In addition to the strength out of China, we are seeing broad strength across the Semis supply chain. Consequently, we raise our 2026/27/28 WFE estimates to $150/$218/$281 bn (+36%/+45%/+29%) from $141/$186/$208 bn (+28%/+32%/+12%) previously, reflecting significant capex revisions and more constructive outlooks from SPE suppliers. And we see DRAM and leading-edge foundry (near term) as well as NAND and Logic/Other (medium term, including Terafab) as key drivers of WFE momentum, supported by node transitions, migration to HBM4, and capacity additions.

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Key to watch: How much more capital China can invest. IC volume self-sufficiency has already climbed to 70%, but the value gap remains wide given China still lacks lithography, and its R&D and capex still trail global leaders.

Best positioned manufacturing providers: Buy-rated AMAT, LRCX, ASML, Tokyo Electron, ASMI, BESI, Lasertec, and Ebara.

See also Shuhei Nakamura’s “Raising WFE outlook; production capacity/pricing power in face of strong orders becoming increasingly important” and Giuni Lee’s “Korea WFE/Substrate CCL/Chip testing/HBM Supply Chain Check reinforces our positive view on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and SEMCO.”

Looking Ahead The key economic data releases this week are the durables report and the core PCE inflation report on Wednesday, but there are no major economic data releases scheduled today.

Performance of Global Indices (as of August 24, 2026)

Index % Change Asia Nikkei 225 -0.7% Shanghai Composite -0.6% Hang Seng -1.9% Taiwan TAIEX -1.0% SPI/ASX 200 0.5% Europe FTSE 100 0.2% DAX 0.1% CAC 40 0.0% Euro STOXX600 0.1% Source: FactSet, Bloomberg

Rating & Conviction List Changes (as of August 24, 2026)

AMERICAS Company Name Ticker Rating (New) Rating (Old) Aeva Technologies Inc. AEVA Neutral - Gerdau GGBR4.SA  Neutral Buy EUROPE None ASIA Company…