market monitor

Market Monitor Chart of the Week: Exceptional Earnings Equities Aggregate Index Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Median Stock US companies have continued to report robust 50% Including AMZN, GOOGL, 45% earnings, with the S&P 500 on track to achieve its

S&P 500 EPS YoY Growth and MSFT "other income" 40% seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit year- 27% over-year earnings growth. S&P 500 EPS growth is 30% 26% 26% tracking at 45% YoY in Q2 and at 26% after 20% adjusting for non-recurring sources of income, 20% both of which are higher than expectations of 10% 13% 12% 22% YoY growth coming into the quarter. EPS 9% growth for the median S&P 500 stock is tracking at 0% 12% year-over-year, also exceeding consensus Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 estimates of 9% at the start of the season, pointing to broad-based earnings strength as well. Source: GS Global Investment Research and GS Asset Management. As of August 5, 2026.

SAS Market Strategy Market Summary Economic Summary Global Equities: US equities surged last week, fueled by strong Labor: Last week’s data releases revived concerns about the US corporate earnings results, a rebound in AI stocks and hopes of a labor market. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23k in July, deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 notched its 26th well below consensus expectations of an 85k increase. June’s record high of the year, ending the week up 3.59%. European figure was revised down from 57k to 20k, and May’s from 129k to equities gained 1.80% to reach an all-time high, with corporate 63k. While the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.2% to profits set to grow at the fastest rate since 2022. In Asia, while 4.1%, labor force participation also fell slightly, down from 61.5% Japan’s TOPIX also participated in the rally, rising 1.79%, Korea’s to 61.4%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings growth slowed from KOSPI declined by –5.10% as semiconductor stocks fell. 0.3% MoM to 0.1%. Job openings fell by 178k to 7,359k in June, somewhat below consensus expectations, driven mostly by a Fixed Income: US Treasury yields slid last week as falling oil prices decline in openings in the health care category. On a more positive lowered inflation expectations and weaker-than-expected jobs note, US initial jobless claims were little changed at 199k in the data reduced market expectations of Fed rate hikes. The 2-Year week ending August 1, marking the third consecutive week that and 10-Year US Treasury yields ended down at 4.20% and 4.65%, they came in below 200k, the longest such streak since 1969. respectively. The 10-Year German Bund yield also declined to 3.13% as lower oil prices tempered expectations of rate hikes. Inflation: Euro area producer price inflation slowed from 5.9% YoY in May to 4.6% in June, though the print largely reflected lower Commodities: Oil prices fell last week after US Treasury Secretary energy prices, with producer prices excluding energy remaining Scott Bessent announced that talks with Iran could result in a deal firmer. Japan’s labor cash earnings increased by 3.4% YoY in June, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears about oil supply. Oil in line with consensus expectations and slightly above May’s prices rebounded when Iran announced that it would prohibit US revised 3.3%, suggesting continued progress toward achieving and Israeli ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but sustained inflation. WTI and Brent Crude still ended down at $78.18 and $83.55/bbl, respectively. Gold rose sharply as lower oil prices and soft US Activity: The ISM Manufacturing index increased by 2.3 points to payrolls data drove yields lower, ending the week up at 55.6 in July, above consensus expectations, reaching its highest $4,341.56/troy oz. level since May 2022. The composition of the report was strong, with increases in the new orders, production and employment FX: The US dollar index fell by –0.38% last week. After initially components. This print marked its seventh consecutive month benefiting from safe-haven flows due to ongoing tensions in the above 50. The ISM Services index, by contrast, only edged up by Middle East, it fell to its lowest level…