## Marketcolour + AI Spending / Junior Investment Conf / HF Update / Global Macro / Prosegur / Adyen / Novonesis ##

Good Morning, US equities finished mostly lower on Friday, with modest losses in the S&P and Nasdaq and gains in the Russell 2000: SPX -17bps to 7785 (6/11 sectors +ve, SPW vs SPX +19bps, lowest volume day of the year, Energy +136bps, Healthcare -60bp), NDX -13bps to 30,046 (just ~2% below ATHs), RTY +51bps to 3068. High Beta Momo (GSPRHIMO, +393bps) gained, with Memory (GSTMTMEM, +256bps) led higher by SNDK +7.4% (+35% last week). In Europe, Software focus of the day (GSSBSFTW +3.3%) while pharma (GSXEPHAR 1.8%) and semis (GSSBSEMI -1.6%) ended bottom of our leaderboard score.

Interesting / Situational Awareness / 13f Filings (as of 30.6.2026): Top-10 holdings accounting for 91% of the public book -> Sandisk 28%, Micron 28%, Bloom Energy 9%, TSMC 6%, Nebius 6%... Link

Interesting / AI spending: The Ramp AI Index shows that the monthly AI spend per employee for the median company has increased from $5 at the start of the year to $12 in July. The distribution of corporate AI spend is wide, with the top decile company spending $650 per month per employee in July (vs. $240 at the start of the year). Link

GS Invite: Building an Investment Framework Conference for your new joiner with 0-5 yrs of experience. Link

Derivs: The most important development remains the collapse in single-stock volatility – and the resulting pain in dispersion. Average S&P 500 single-stock 1-month implied vol fell another 2.7 points this week, bringing the decline from its July peak to 12 points. It has now fallen in six of the last seven sessions and sits at its lowest level since January.

HF Update: Fundamental LS managers up 1.0% (alpha: +0.5%), up 2.0% MTD and up 15.1% YTD. Systematic LS managers up 1.5%, up 1.9% MTD and up 15.2% YTD. Global book was net bought for 3rd straight week, this week with long buying and short covering activity (2.5 to 1). Risk-on flows. North America led the buying activity followed by Europe. EM was the most net sold region. 9/11 sectors were net bought led by Info Tech and Consumer Staples (largest weekly buying since Jul’25).

Gold: Through Thursday, the spot-gold complex has garnered just shy of $1 billion, while silver ETFs have absorbed +$385mm (its best week of flows since May)…Chart below.

Global Macro / Jan Hatzius: A rate hike at the September FOMC meeting has become very unlikely following a broad softening in US consumption and employment coupled with materially better inflation news. European equities have outperformed as the stock market is not the economy and valuations are more reasonable than elsewhere. Whether rebalancing China requires a stronger RMB or stronger

domestic demand is a false dichotomy; both are essential. Our baseline market views are constructive, but we worry about oil inventories falling to historic lows if the Strait doesn’t reopen soon.Link

Europe Strategy: We roll forward and raise our price targets for Europe; we now expect 695 for SXXP over 12m, 9% total (previous target 660). Link

Novonesis (CL Buy / PT DKK495 / 15% Upside) – preview: We anticipate solid results (9.5% OSG vs. Cons at 7.7%; 37.6% adj. EBITDA margin vs. Cons at 37.8%), but note incremental cautiousness in recent client conversations around tougher comparables into FY27 owing to a cyclical, price-driven uplift to Bioenergy on the back of Middle East conflict, and dairy-driven outperformance in Food & Beverage. Link

Adyen (BUY / PT EUR1850 / 75% Upside) - We remain confident in Adyen's ability to drive wallet share gains with existing customers (recent expansion with Toast in the US), ramp of prior cohorts (the largest cohort signed in 2025 scaling in 2026), new customers (now live with OpenAI processing subscriptions), new product launches and embedded finance, all underpinned by Adyen's superior technology offering. Link

Biz Services: We remain Sell rated on Prosegur Cash and Prosegur Group, following their 2Q'26 results - where the companies reported higher than expected revenue supported by lower FX drag, but missed consensus expectations on EBITA due to weaker margins. Looking ahead, we continue to see risks around a challenging macro environment in the end markets that the companies operate in, along with FX headwinds…