## Marketcolour + Mutual Fund Analysis / JD / Siemens / Carlsberg / Moderna ##

## Marketcolour + Mutual Fund Analysis / JD / Siemens / Carlsberg / Moderna ##

Good Morning, US equities were mixed but mostly higher, with the equal-weight S&P outperforming: SPX +21bps to 7707 (6/11 sectors +ve, SPW vs SPX +83bps, VIX near ytd lows -6% @14.89, Healthcare +352bps, Consumer Disc +214bps, Industrials -89bps), NDX -22bps to 29,426, RTY +50bps to 3032. Equity moves looked wrong way (Small > Big, Laggards > Leaders, Shorts > Longs, Low Vol > High Vol), High Beta Momo (GSPRHIMO, -726bps) was hit hard, with Memory (GSTMTMEM, -486bps) selling off. In singles, MRNA +177% rocketed higher following results from a phase 3 trial for a melanoma vaccine. In Europe (6-d losing streak, volumes 20% vs avg), EU Miners (GSXEMINE +4.3%) the top performer, on USD weakness and gold holding firm (XAU +3.7%). Healthcare (SXDP +1.4%) a clean defensive rotation as the rates/geopolitical anxiety drove capital out of cyclicals.

Interesting: OpenAI: revenue grew +18% to $6.7bn in Q2 (vs. Anthropic +100%+ to $11.6bn); operating loss widened to $12.3bn from $9.3bn in Q1. Link

Rates: U.S. TREASURY INCREASING SIZE OF LIQUIDITY SUPPORT BUYBACK OPERATIONS FOR LONGER- DATED NOMINAL COUPON SECURITIES [current maximum size of $2bn per operation will be at least $4bn per operation , Yield Curve flattened ->2s30s -9 bps]-> Ultimately, the drivers of higher yields at the long end have been macro related—capex, productivity and real risk premium plus persistent macro supply shocks—so while this may relieve some of the worries about excessive long-end issuance, we don’t this addresses the fundamental issues driving the curve steepening/cheapening in long end.

Mutual Fund Analysis: New MF Overweights (GSTHMFOW): UNH, APH, SPCX, VIK, COF, UPS, BMY, LH, ANET, SNX, PGR, MSI, FANG // New MF Underweights (GSTHMFUW): MRVL, LRCX, FTNT, QCOM, CRWD, KLAC, AFL. 41% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD, modestly above the historical average of 37%. 74% of large-cap growth funds are outperforming. Mutual fund cash balances registered 1.2% of assets and are now near the record low from December 2025. Link

Correlation: This year has been marked by historically low correlation across US Equities with pairwise correlation across SPX names at multi year lows. What has been striking more recently is the bifurcation between the AI and non-AI trade, illustrated by the lowest and most negative correlation on record between our GS Broad AI basket ( GSTMTAIP) and SPXXAI Index. The basket and the index have only traded in the same direction 1/3rd of the time in the last 3 months (vs ~2/3rd historical average).

HF Performance: Systematic L/S managers down 1.4% (>3 SD on 3 years), worst day in more than 2 years. Losses spread across all regions with momentum alone contributing 60 bps to the underperformance. Still up 1.7% for the month. Fundamental L/S managers down 0.7% but still up 0.8% for the month. Chart below.

Top of Mind – Fed Transparency: GS economists and strategists find that reduced transparency leads to increased market volatility, the question is whether this just increases the market’s noise or also improves the market’s signal. Hatzius argues largely for the former and Miran for the latte Link

JD Sports - Q2 LFL -3.1% (consensus -2%) with the miss driven by the US (-7%). By category, they unsurprisingly call out a weak footwear market (consistent with comments from the likes of Zalando and adidas) which remains promotional (as On had flagged). However, they also say the US market was affected by weak sentiment/cost of living and deferred BTS demand from July into the beginning of August.

Siemens (BUY / PT EUR319 from EUR292 / 15% Upside): We increase Industrial Business orders for 2026/27 by 3%/5% driven by a 10%/15% increase in Smart Infrastructure, which reported another quarter of triple-digit order growth in datacenters and where the company raised FY26 OSG guidance to 10-11%. This offsets the decrease in GSe for Digital Industries - the only division that missed our expectations on orders. Furthermore, we increase IB revenues for 2027/28E by 2%/2% leading to a 2%/1%/1% increase in 2026/27/28E IB adj. EBITA. Link

Carlsberg (BUY / PT…