Mexico Solid Broad Based Expansion of Real GDP During 2Q26; Some

Economics Research 24 August 2026 | 8:37AM EDT

Mexico: Solid Broad-Based Expansion of Real GDP During 2Q26; Some Payback Expected in Q3 (Ramos)

Bottom Line: According to the quarterly real activity 2nd vintage estimate, real GDP rose Alberto Ramos | 1.42% qoq sa during 2Q26, marginally below consensus and the flash estimate. The 4Q25 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and 1Q26 prints were revised up by 23/27bp, to 0.95%/-0.34%. The 2Q26 real GDP growth figure was revised up by 25bp. The expansion of real activity during 2Q26 was broad-based across the three main supply-side sectors, with sizeable increases recorded in the secondary (+1.6% qoq sa) and labor-intensive services (+14% qoq sa) sectors. Real GDP grew 1.2% yoy during 1H2026. We expect some payback in Q3 from the outsized Q2 expansion. Within the secondary sector we highlight firmer manufacturing (+1.1% qoq sa), construction (+4.0% qoq sa), and mining (0.8% qoq sa). With the revised 1Q26 print and with revisions to prior data, the statistical carry-over for 2026 is at 1.4%. Real activity ended 2Q26 on a weak note. According to the IGAE monthly indicator, real GDP declined 0.06% mom sa in Jun, slightly below the +0.01% Bloomberg consensus and adding to the -0.44% mom sa May variation. The decline of activity in Jun was driven by tertiary/services (-0.1% qoq sa) and primary (-3.63% mom sa) sectors. Secondary sector activity rose 0.62% mom sa, driven by mining/utilities construction (+0.62%/+0.93%/+3.0%). The monthly IGAE statistical carry for real GDP growth in 3Q2026 is at -0.2 qoq sa, and for 2026 at 1.4%. Folding in today’s complete dataset, our forecast for real 2026 GDP growth rose by 0.1pt to 1.4%.

Going forward, we expect activity to face headwinds from soft business confidence and peaking credit cycle. On the positive side, generous minimum wage increases, a resilient labor market, and public works should offer some support to domestic demand. We expect investment to continue to be impacted by both domestic and external uncertainty, in particular related to trade-policy direction in the US and the USMCA review.

Real GDP: 1.42% qoq sa, versus consensus expectations at 1.5% qoq sa and GS 1.5% qoq sa; prior quarter revised -0.34% qoq sa (from -0.62% qoq sa).

Real GDP: 2.1% yoy, versus GS at 2.2% yoy and consensus at 2.2% yoy.

1. According to the quarterly real activity 2nd-vintage estimate, real GDP grew 1.42% qoq sa during 2Q26; marginally below the Bloomberg consensus and the 1.5% flash estimate and a clear rebound from the -0.34% qoq sa 1Q26 print. The 4Q25 and 1Q26 prints were revised up by 23/27bp, to +0.95%/-0.34%. The 1Q26 real GDP level was raised by 0.25pt. 2. The 2Q26 real activity expansion was broad-based across the main

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

supply-sectors: secondary (+1.6% qoq sa), labor-intensive services (+1.4% qoq sa), and low-weight primary sector (+2.4% qoq sa). 3. Within the secondary sector we highlight the recovery of manufacturing (+1.1% qoq sa, vs -0.5% qoq sa during 1Q26) and construction (+4.0% qoq sa, from -1.3% qoq sa in 1Q26), and mining (0.8% qoq, from0.2% qoq sa in 1Q26). 4. The 2nd vintage real activity quarterly figure was slightly softer than the 1.5% flash estimate, driven by the downward revision to the tertiary (-10bp to 1.4%) and primary (-90bp to 2.4% qoq sa) sectors. 5. On an annual basis real GDP rose 2.1% yoy in 2Q26, 10bp below the 2.2% Bloomberg consensus and up from the 0.2% yoy 1Q26 print. 6. On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, real GDP rose 1.9% yoy sa in 2Q26, driven by the 2.3% yoy sa increase of the tertiary sector. The secondary sector grew a mild 0.9% yoy sa, and the primary sector a high 4.8% yoy sa. 7. With the revised 2Q26 print and with revisions to prior data, the statistical carry-over for 2026 is at 1.4%; that is, were the economy to remain flat during 2026 at the 2Q26 level, real GDP would grow 1.4% in the year. 8. Real activity ended 2Q26 on a weak note. According to the IGAE monthly indicator, real GDP declined 0.06% mom sa in Jun, below…