Nomura Cross Asset AND WE'RE BACK (AT U.S. EQUITIES ATH'S)

Nomura Cross-Asset: AND WE'RE BACK (AT U.S. EQUITIES ATH'S)

• Chasing back in, Netting-Up, and “Spot Up, Vol Up” as we rally back into long- forgotten Calls which are now picking-up ALLLLLL the $Delta, as the “Right Tail” comes back to life

• How did we get here, now to fresh US Equities ATH’s? Perversely, off the the back on the PAIN of the past 4-6 weeks….

“…(A)s the “overshoot” in “Enablers vs Hyperscalers” is increasingly pushing towards levels of asymmetry that are then increasing “Reversal Risk” in these HEAVILY GROSSED-UP Market themes (the bottleneck “Long Enablers” and “Short Hyperscalers” -legs), the standard “Stability Breeding Instability” crescendo builds…this theme will be “THE” location to watch for market sentiment inflection and Gross Leverage risk-management strain”

--Me, 6/26/26 “AI ZEITGEIST EVOLUTION”

• The above was from a note I sent prior to my block leave in late June, talking about the risks in what had become at that time consensus AI positioning “Long AI Enablers / Bottlenecks vs Short Hyperscalers), and how the broad Equities market couldn’t make new highs without the Hyperscalers leading from the front…as at that point, those Hyperscaler /MegaCap / Mag8+ -names had been relegated to “Funders” status, and hence the sideways to down “chop” in Spot Index for majority of the past 3 months …

• Well since that June 26th note, the “AI Enablers / Bottlenecks vs Hyperscalers” Market-Neutral -trade is -20.4% (e.g. DRAM vs Mag10 -33.2%), while Spooz are now +3.7% as those prior dynamics got absolutely RINSED in a biblical “Momentum-Unwind” risk-management De-Grossing, with Hyperscalers as Funding Shorts violently rallying +16.0% over that period (+12.6% QTD), while the crowded Longs in “Enablers / Bottlenecks” are -7.7% since 6/26/26 (-11.7% QTD)

• And yet despite a few days of “Corr 1” de-risking and a ~5% high-low S&P futures -range / ~11% Nasdaq futs -range along-the-way, broad US Equities Index Vol kept its stuff together, which again speaks to more of that same thematic “Dispersion” -phenomenon with regards to market “Leaders / Laggards” at such extreme bifurcation…although in this case, it’s more like “Reverse Dispersion,” with the earlier described role-reversal…and accordingly, S&P 500 Correlation stays CRUSHED