Nomura Special Report The Seeds Of political change

Global Markets Research Special Report 21 August 2026

Research Analysts The seeds of political change European Economics Politics in Europe is lurching towards more populism. Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc • Europe faces a number of high-profile national and local George Buckley - NIplc elections this year (Germany and Sweden) and next (France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and Poland). Populist right-wing political parties are on the rise and are likely to make significant Josie Anderson - NIplc gains in a number of countries. Each election will be a barometer of the local – and possibly wider European – political climate. CEEMEA Research • In countries where there are elections, financial markets will be Zumrut Imamoglu - NIplc focused on whether any newly elected governments that include populist political parties are fiscally profligate, or whether they focus on social issues while maintaining fiscal prudence to Global FX Strategy demonstrate their ability to govern responsibly. Dominic Bunning - NIplc • Elsewhere (the UK and Hungary), there have been recent political changes with new, populist governments facing difficult choices over how to rein in their spending and boost economic Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc growth. It remains to be seen how successful they will be.

See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts.

Nomura | Special Report 21 August 2026

Executive summary 3 Germany: Can Merz make it through? 4 France: Rearranging the deckchairs 7 Italy: Captain Meloni navigating choppy waters 10 Spain: Left or right, it’s all good 13 UK: How long can the Burnham bounce last? 15 Sweden: Return to a left-wing government? 19 Switzerland: Immigration key in 2027 election 21 Poland: Fragmented political landscape complicates fiscal outlook 23 Hungary: Marching ahead with reforms 24 FX Strategy 25 Recent Special Reports 27 Appendix A-1 28