Payments and Fintech 2Q26 Earnings Takeaways and key investor debates

Equity Research 25 August 2026 | 5:01AM EDT

Payments and Fintech: 2Q26 Earnings Takeaways and key investor debates

Coming out of 2Q26 earnings we recap performance across our coverage and Will Nance | discuss high level debates from investor conversations. Overall stock performance Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

across the coverage has been decent over the course of earnings, with the median Jack Evans | stock up 13% QTD, and with the median stock holding on to modest gains since Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

earnings. Revenue and EPS estimates across our coverage were revised higher by Chandru Ravikumar | LSD, with CHYM, RELY, PAR, and RSKD seeing the most significant upward revisions Goldman Sachs India SPL and WU, FISV and FOUR seeing the largest negative revisions. Investor feedback as a whole focused on how day-of-earnings stock reactions were less extreme than in prior quarters, although with some notable positioning-driven exceptions. From a fundamental perspective, we believe investors are looking to understand which names could be best positioned to see relatively better top line trends against decelerating consumer spending levels. Finally, on more micro debates, we believe investors are focused on 1) What can get XYZ to break out? 2) How should investors be positioned among the merchant acquirers? 3) What is the latest update on the Visa versus Mastercard relative valuation debate? 4) Where is the bar now for CHYM after a thesis changing quarter for the bears?

n What was wrong with the XYZ print and what is key for the stock? Investors have highlighted 1) less flow-through of opex savings from the headcount reduction than some investors anticipated and 2) debate around the pace of deceleration in lending related revenue streams in Cash App. Seller is less in focus, although some investor debate around whether gross profit growth can outpace volume growth given 1) flat spreads in 2Q 2) easing comps in 2H as they lap softer Square capital lending last year 3) easier comps as they lap changes in their processor costs last year. We believe the selloff post earnings is mainly a case of high expectations and crowded positioning, and believe that seeing longer term investor sponsorship will be key for the stock. In terms of near term catalysts for this to occur, we look for accelerating GP growth in Seller and continued 20%+ Cash App GP growth to drive positive revisions in the back half of the year. n Merchant processors relative positioning: While XYZ and TOST remain favorites in the group, we believe sentiment has improved in GPN and FOUR, as 1) both seem to be indicating the potential for product cycles (GPN/Genius; FOUR/Shift4 One) to improve organic growth levels and 2) both trade at what we

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Payments and Fintech

view as highly inexpensive multiples (GPN: 9.4x EV/UFCF, FOUR 11.8x EV/UFCF on our 2027 numbers). However, there is still debate on whether FOUR’s 2027 revenue/FCF estimates are derisked. Sentiment on FISV remains highly negative, with investors questioning nearly every part of the merchant story, and in particular, Clover’s ability to maintain growth given distribution channel disruption and increasing competitive intensity. Finally, for TOST, we believe investors are looking for SaaS ARPU acceleration as a catalyst for the stock (potentially as a function of both pricing and their new AI product, Toast IQ Grow). We believe mgmt grounded investor expectations for similar margin expansion in 2027 as in 2026, while also noting that they have visibility to hardware related headwinds through 2027 and will let the reversal of those headwinds flow to the bottom line when hardware costs…