Probably the Most Bearish Chart of the Weekend

The Nasdaq 100 is now down 7% this July, putting it on pace for its worst July in 22 years. Brutal action for AI stocks while oil prices and rates rise at the same time because of Iran. Sentiment & positioning indicators would indicate that a bounce is near. But why could we not trade down to the 200-day moving average? Here are the latest positioning charts from sell-side as we are heading into the well- deserved weekend.

Hedge funds have consistently sold Mag7 this year. They are now nearly "the least long" the cohort they have been over the past 12 months. L/S ratio at 10th percentile.

Retail flow (net buying) has dropped to close to the lowest since the pandemic.

"Notional exposures of the top 50 leveraged ETFs globally are down ~$100B from the June peak. To put that move in perspective, the current total notional of non-dealer length in Emini SPX futures is ~$267B." (Mason Fennelly)

Global HF positioning in Semis way off highs but of course still quite elevated.

Korea exposure coming off highs but still elevated. Very much the same as semis.

Hyperscalers have never been this non-correlated to NDX. This comes at a time where both S&P implied and realized correlation remain at the lows.