Ramaco Resources Inc

Equity Research 4 August 2026 | 9:16PM EDT

Ramaco Resources Inc. (METC): First Take: 2Q26 revenue beats on higher volumes but 2026 guidance lowered; Neutral

METC reported mixed 2Q26 results, as sales volumes exceeded guidance, driving a Brian Lee, CFA | beat on revenue and adj. EBITDA, but lowered guidance due to a strategic shift to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

grow low-vol met coal production. The company recognized non-GAAP revenue per Tyler Bisset, CFA | ton sold of $116/ton, slightly above our $115/ton view, while non-GAAP cost per ton Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

of $99/ton was below our $100/ton view. We note that the company increased its Keshav Choudhary | committed volumes to 3.8mn tons, or slightly more than 100% of the midpoint of its Goldman Sachs India SPL production guidance range. Looking ahead, the company anticipates 3Q26 shipments of 0.95mn-1.10mn tons, while cash costs are expected to trend toward the higher end of its revised guidance range due to elevated fuel costs. On the call, we are looking for more discussion on the company’s progress advancing its rare earths business as well as the outlook for its met coal business, including its shift towards the low-vol market. Please find our initial takeaways within this report ahead of the company’s 11:00 a.m. ET conference call on August 5.

2Q26 revenue and EBITDA beat on higher sales volumes. Revenue of $145mn beat GSe/FactSet consensus of ~$131mn/~$134mn. The company sold 1.06mn tons of met coal, above our view of 0.96mn tons and guidance of 0.90mn-1.00mn tons. The company recognized GAAP and non-GAAP revenue per ton sold of $137/ton and $116/ton, which was slightly above GSe of $136/ton and $115/ton, respectively. Additionally, GAAP and non-GAAP cost per ton of $121/ton and $99/ton was within our view of $122/ton and $100/ton, respectively. As a result, adj. EBITDA and diluted EPS came in at $5.7mn and ($0.26), respectively, compared to GSe/consensus of $4.2mn/$4.8mn and ($0.24)/($0.25).

3Q26 volumes to remain steady, 2026 guidance reduced. METC guided for 3Q26 volumes of 0.95mn-1.10mn tons, lower than our view of 1.18mn tons. Additionally, cash costs are expected to trend toward the higher end of its revised guidance range of $96/ton-$99/ton due to elevated fuel costs related to the conflict in Iran. Management reduced its 2026 production and sales guidance to 3.6mn-3.9mn tons (-2% yoy) and 4.0mn-4.3mn tons (+8% yoy), which is inline with GSe of 3.9mn tons and 4.2mn tons, respectively, and compares to 3.7mn-4.1mn tons and 4.1-4.5mn tons prior. Additionally, the company now has committed North America volumes of 1.1mn tons at $138/ton, 1.4mn tons of fixed-price seaborne volumes at $108/ton, and 1.3mn tons of index-priced volumes. In aggregate, METC has 3.8mn tons of sales commitments, or slightly more than 100% of its 2026 production guidance at the midpoint. Lastly, the company increased capex guidance to $92mn-$97mn from $85mn-$90mn.

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Goldman Sachs Ramaco Resources Inc. (METC)

Updated rare earths flowsheet. On 7/29, METC released an updated independent conceptual study prepared by Hatch Associates for its carbochlorination process at the Brook Mine. The report outlined an after-tax NPV (at 8% discount rate) of $6.4bn and average annual adjusted EBITDA of $1.3bn, amid $4.0bn in total capex and initial production expected in 2H31.

Valuation and risks. Our 12-month price target of $13 is based on a 4.5X EV/EBITDA multiple on the Q5-Q8 EBITDA of its coal business for a $9/sh valuation. We then add our rare earths valuation, which is based on a 3.5X EV/EBITDA multiple on the 2031 EBITDA of its rare earths business, and yields a $6/sh valuation. We…