SpaceX Aug 3

Rating Company Date 3 August 2026 Buy SpaceX Company Update North America United States Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 31 Jul 2026 (USD) 108.37 SPCX.OQ SPCX US NSM SPCX Price Target 255.00 Industrials 201.80 - Space Technology 52-week range 108.37

Bumpy ride into maiden earnings report Valuation & Risks

Edison Yu While we remain steadfast in our long-term bull thesis for SpaceX, the stock has Research Analyst clearly been under significant downward pressure. Simplistically, we think the main issue has been a tactical fear of the upcoming lock-ups, further exacerbated Bryan Kraft by uncertainty around the AI business, complexity of a potential Tesla merger, and Research Analyst lower than expected passive index buying. That being said, we are optimistic following the lock-ups coming off, the stock can stabilize at some level. Moreover, announcing a large government/sovereign AI deal would be viewed positively for Roshan Ranjit, CFA Research Analyst the stock. In respect to earnings, we preview our detailed expectations on the quarter and outlook below. Melissa Weathers Research Analyst 2Q26 earnings preview We generally expect in-line 2Q results calling for revenue of $6.67bn (+64% YoY), gross profit margin of nearly 58%, and EBITDA of >$2,100m (see Figure 1 for Laura Li details). Supporting growth, the AI segment is benefitting from a partial quarter Research Associate contribution from the Anthropic neocloud deal, growing revenue by over 2x sequentially to $1.88bn (DBe). In addition, we assume consumer broadband subscribers exited the quarter at 12.5m (vs. 10.3m in 1Q26) while ARPU declined modestly by $3 QoQ to $63, leading to Connectivity revenue up >50% YoY to nearly $4bn. And for the Space segment, we tracked nine external Falcon 9 launches in 2Q vs. just seven in 1Q but down from 1Q25's eleven. In respect to cash burn, we forecast capex of around $17bn, mainly directed at AI compute, taking capacity to 1.3-1.4 GW, leading to FCF burn of >$10bn.

Key focus areas for the outlook Launch: following the progress made on Starship Flight 13, we anticipate focus will be on timing of the next few launches given intention to attempt a second stage (Ship) tower catch.

Connectivity: beyond subs/ARPU trends, focus will be on the latest view from management on the potential US terrestrial mobile network road map (i.e., build vs. MVNO vs. buy).

AI: there are several moving parts including Grok (accelerating model progress but impact from open weight/source competition), Cursor acquisition, neocloud dynamics (Google seemingly only using capacity as bridge given current constraints, US govt reportedly in talks for a deal); we forecast compute capacity

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

3 August 2026 Space Technology SpaceX

Tesla: the merger topic was brought up on the Tesla earnings call and Musk commented: "Well, as you can tell from all the many collaborations on so many fronts with SpaceX, there’s more and more overlap, especially with Terafab, that’s really going to be a gigantic project. Obviously, we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call. It’s got to be done with the appropriate process."

Figure 1: 2Q26E earnings preview 2Q26E ($mn except KPIs) 2Q25 1Q26 DBe Consensus KPIs External launches (#) 10 7 9 9 Broadband subs (m) Broadband ARPU (monthly) $85 $66 $63 $66 Ending period compute 0.31 GW 0.96 GW 1.40 GW 1.34 GW

Revenue 4,071 4,694 6,671 6,865 Space Connectivity 2,588 3,257 3,974 3,883 AI 737 818 1,876 2,084

YoY growth 64% 69% Space 10% 17% Connectivity 54% 50% AI 155% 183%

Gross profit (GAAP) 1,789 2,306 3,864 3,666 Space Connectivity 1,188 1,606 1,947 1,877 AI 185 362 1,351 1,268 Gross profit margin 43.9% 49.1% 57.9% 53.4% Space 55.8% 54.6% 69.0% 60.7% Connectivity 45.9% 49.3% 49.0% 48.3% AI…