Suncor Energy Inc

Equity Research 4 August 2026 | 7:14PM EDT

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU): First Take: Strong CFPS Beat; Increases Share Buyback Level

SU reported 2Q26 CFPS (diluted) of C$4.52, above the GS estimate of C$4.38 and Neil Mehta | company-compiled consensus estimate of C$4.35. Production for the quarter was Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

~761 MBOE/d, generally in-line with the GS and company-compiled consensus Lydia Gould | estimates of ~760 MBOE/d. During the quarter, the company returned ~C$1.8 bn to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

shareholders, including over ~C$1.0 bn in share repurchases and over ~C$700 mn in Josiah Knight | dividends. Starting in August 2026, the company plans to increase share repurchases Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC from C$350 mn to C$500 mn per month, estimating full-year share repurchases of C$4.7 bn. On the earnings call, we look for commentary on (a) Upstream production, (b) refining operations, (c) shareholder returns, (d) free funds flow growth, and (e) break-even reduction. Please see within for further details on the quarter.

Analysis Upstream. Cash flow for the Upstream segments (Oil Sands and E&P) came in at ~C$4,471 mn, which was above our estimate of C$4,144 mn. SU reported 2Q26 production of ~761 MBOE/d, which was generally in-line with the GS/consensus estimates of ~760 MBOE/d. Operating costs on a per barrel basis were above our expectations at Fort Hills, Syncrude, and Oil Sands assets. Pricing realizations were also above GS expectations during the quarter.

Refining. SU reported R&M cash flow of C$2,299 mn, which beat our expectation of C$2,206 mn, with throughput generally in-line with the GS estimate.

Corporate. Corporate segment cash flow was a negative delta relative to GS, at C$(1,441) mn versus the GS estimate of C$(1,183) mn.

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Goldman Sachs Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

Exhibit 1: SU 2Q26 CFPS came in at C$4.52, above the GS estimate of C$4.38 SU Variance Analysis

Variance vs. Variance vs. GS Actual Consensus GS Cons.

EPS (C$) - diluted $3.13 $3.23 $2.92 $0.10 $0.31 Cash Flow from Operations adj. (C$ mn) $5,167 $5,329 NA $162 NA CFPS (C$) - diluted $4.38 $4.52 $4.35 $0.14 $0.17

Upstream GS Actual Consensus vs. GS vs. Cons. Production Oil Sands Production (kbpd) 702 690 NA (12) NA E&P Production (kbpd) 58 71 NA 13 NA Total (MBOE/d)

Operating costs Oil Sands Operations (C$/bbl) $36.46 $32.70 NA $3.76 NA Fort Hills (C$/bbl) $35.48 $44.50 NA $9.02 NA Syncrude (C$/bbl) $36.00 $40.15 NA $4.15 NA

Average price realized (Oil Sands, C$/bbl) $120.95 $129.59 NA $8.64 NA

Upstream cash flow (C$ mn) $4,144 $4,471 NA $327 NA

Downstream GS Actual Consensus vs. GS vs. Cons.

R&M crude throughput 470 471 NA 1 NA R&M cash flow (C$ mn) $2,206 $2,299 NA $93 NA

Corporate cash flow adj. (C$ mn) ($1,183) ($1,441) NA ($259) NA

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

What are key questions for the conference call?

1. Starting in August, the company plans to increase share repurchases from C$350 mn to C$500 mn per month, estimating full-year share repurchases of C$4.7 bn. How is management thinking about the broader outlook for capital returns at current commodity prices? How sustainable are these levels?

2. Upstream cash flow beat GS expectations this quarter, with support from strong realized pricing. What are the latest operational updates across Upstream assets, particularly Firebag, Syncrude, Base Plant, and Fort Hills, as well as E&P? How is this impacting unit cost reductions? What are the key takeaways from recent turnaround?

3. R&M cash flow also exceeded GS expectations this quarter. How is the company continuing to capture market dislocations? How does management expect refining margins, product sales…