Tesla July 27

Rating Company Date 27 July 2026 Buy Tesla Inc. Forecast Change North America United States Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 24 Jul 2026 (USD) 313.03 TSLA.OQ TSLA US NMS TSLA Price target 420.00 Consumer 52-week range Autos & Auto Technology

Robotaxi, Optimus, and SpaceX Valuation & Risks

Edison Yu Following earnings (see our First Look here), we think it’s fairly clear Robotaxi and Research Analyst especially Optimus (supply chain) are scaling slower than anticipated which is disappointing the market. Moreover, the sentiment towards physical or embodied Winnie Dong AI has tapered down and the prospect of a SpaceX merger has likely added another Research Analyst element of volatility. Overall, we suspect we’re entering a tricky period of time where Tesla may not demonstrate any significant milestones until late in the year while cash burn increases materially. We maintain our Buy rating but lower our Laura Li Research Associate price target to $420.

James Mulholland, CFA Robotaxi awaits V15 and Cybercab calibration Research Associate Tesla’s unsupervised Robotaxi fleet has logged >380k miles with zero notable incidents. Cumulative paid miles reached ~2.5 million by end of 2Q26. The service is live in seven US markets: geofence expansion in Austin plus commercial launches Key changes in Miami, Orlando, and Tampa with preparations underway for Phoenix and Las 465.00 to Vegas (Bay Area remains safety-monitor only). Unsupervised miles have grown at TP ↓ -9.7% 420.00 a double-digit week-over-week rate. The binding constraint appears to be the EPS (USD) 1.58 to 1.50 ↓ -4.9% “march of the nines” – driving extreme reliability by clearing the long tail of rare 105,167.7 to edge cases so notable incidents stay extraordinarily unlikely. V14 software was a Revenue (USDm) ↑ 2.9% 108,175.3 large step up, but we suspect it still falls short of the desired safety threshold; V15 Source: Deutsche Bank (model has ~10x more parameters, on the order of 10bn) is meant to close that gap. The Robotaxi fleet is already on early V15 builds, underpinned by seven major improvement tracks over V14, with ~40% already merged.

Separately, Cybercab’s unique design creates a domain-shift issue. The system has been trained mainly on existing Tesla vehicles especially Model Y, so a smaller two- seater with different geometry, dynamics, and camera mounts may not transfer perfectly. Camera views, interaction with other road users, and control outputs still need chassis-specific validation. Tesla is accumulating miles via engineering test vehicles (some still with controls) and employee autonomous rides at Gigafactory Texas, and has matched Cybercab manufacturing targets to the projected growth of unsupervised miles. Once that validation is in hand, unsupervised Cybercab deployment can accelerate.

Optimus still faces supply-chain constraints Optimus production remains in the early stages and constrained by parts of the supply chain. Initial builds at Fremont which should start production “soon” will go

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27 July 2026 Autos & Auto Technology Tesla Inc.

only to the internal “Optimus Academy” for training data and further development. The primary bottleneck is product novelty. Roughly 10,000 unique parts must be sourced or built in-house and Tesla is attempting to stand up parts of the supply base literally from scratch (i.e., much more so than with BEVs early on). While Optimus V3 is sourcing certain components from Chinese suppliers (Hengli, Rongtai, etc...), we suspect there may be bottlenecks in other areas where management aims to bring in-house. For example, management indicated for the future Optimus V4, the plan is to in-source the PCB.

Figure 1: Optimus first generation production line in Fremont

Contemplating SpaceX merger Our sense…