The Brink's Co. (BCO) 2Q First Take Top line and bottom line beat with the full year guide reaffirmed

Equity Research 5 August 2026 | 5:46AM PDT

The Brink’s Co. (BCO): 2Q First Take: Top-line and bottom-line beat with the full year guide reaffirmed

We expect investors to have a positive reaction to Brink’s 2Q 2026 earnings release, George K. Tong, CFA | with revenue, EBITDA margins and EPS outperforming consensus expectations, and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC the full year guide reaffirmed. Organic revenue growth was solid at 4.2% y/y, though Alex Lakritz came modestly below our forecast and growth from 1Q. Digital Retail Solutions | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC (DRS) and ATM Managed Services (AMS), which is tracking to reach 30-32% of revenue in 2026 from 28% in 2025, collectively grew mid-teens y/y. The company’s Sami Nasir, CFA | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC traditional cash and valuables management business delivered fractional low-single-digit underlying organic revenue growth in 2Q, helped by strong precious metal shipping trends in the quarter. EBITDA margins expanded 70 bps y/y to 18.5% driven by mix benefits from DRS/AMS, cost efficiencies and operating leverage. BCO continues to expect organic revenue growth in the mid-single-digits and 30-50 bps of EBITDA margin expansion in 2026. The company is continuing to make progress on its pending acquisition of NCR Atleos, and noted that the regulatory process is well underway and progressing as expected with a planned close by the end of 1Q 2027. On the earnings call, we expect investors to be focused on incremental findings on potential revenue and cost synergies from the NATL acquisition, initiatives to drive further DRS/AMS client adoption, retail and financial services customer behaviors in an uncertain macro environment, and trends in the traditional cash and valuables management business.

Exhibit 1: 2Q Actuals vs GS and FactSet Estimates $ in millions, except per share data

2Q Actuals GS Estimates FactSet Consensus Revenue $1,392.3 $1,389.3 $1,387.4 y/y growth 7.1% 6.8% 6.7% y/y growth - Organic 4.2% 5.2%

Adjusted EBITDA $257.2 $252.7 $253.3 Adjusted EBITDA margins 18.5% 18.2% 18.3%

Source: FactSet, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Actuals vs GS and FactSet estimates. Revenue of $1,392mn increased 7.1% y/y, above our estimate of 6.8% and FactSet consensus of 6.7%. On an organic basis, revenue grew 4.2% y/y, below our forecast of 5.2% and decelerating fractionally from 4.5% in 1Q. Digital Retail Solutions (DRS) and ATM Managed Services (AMS) combined grew 14% y/y organically in 2Q compared to 15% growth in 1Q, driven by customer conversions and new additions. BCO’s Cash and Valuables Management

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Goldman Sachs The Brink’s Co. (BCO)

(CVM) business was flat-to-slightly up y/y organically, reflecting strong precious metal shipping trends and the ongoing conversion of traditional customers to DRS/AMS. By region, organically, North America revenue increased 2% y/y, Latin America revenue grew 2%, Europe revenue rose 2% and Rest of World revenue expanded 15%. FX represented a 280 bps tailwind to revenue growth. EBITDA margins expanded 70 bps y/y to 18.5% driven by growth in higher-margin DRS/AMS offerings, cost discipline and operating leverage, and came above our forecast of 18.2% and consensus of 18.3%. EPS of $2.13 beat our estimate and consensus of $2.04.

Guidance vs Street. BCO maintained its full year 2026 guidance for mid-single-digit organic revenue growth comprising mid-to-high teens DRS/AMS organic revenue growth, EBITDA margin expansion of 30-50 bps with implied 18.9-19.1% margins and free cash flow conversion from EBITDA of 40-45%. The company also introduced 3Q 2026 guidance for revenue of $1,365-$1,415mn, with 4-7% organic revenue growth…