The Flow Show Let them eat data

The Flow Show Let them eat data

Scores on the Doors: oil 59.0%, global stocks 15.1%, US stocks 13.2%, gold 3.8%, HY 03 September 2026 bonds 2.5%, cash 2.5%, US dollar 0.7%, IG -0.5%, govt bonds -1.4%, bitcoin -7.0% YTD. Investment Strategy Global The Price is Right: 99% probability ECB hikes Sept 10th, 53% Fed hikes on 16th, 98% BoJ hikes 18th (per Bloomberg futures pricing); hikes coming as central banks try to restore credibility to ward off surge in bond yields (biggest threat to AI capex + K-shape consumer booms); we say Fed hike with stalled payrolls (Chart 3) = credibility & peak yields... why duration (RTY, XBI, KRE, REIT) keeps working, nouveau-leveraged Mag7 on cusp of upside breakout.

Tale of the Tape: $4/gallon gas, 160 dollar-yen, 5% UST bond yield “Maginot Lines” for Michael Hartnett US admin hence policy interventions via FX, bond buybacks, monetary policy (pressure Investment Strategist BofAS on BoJ to raise policy rate that’s averaged 0.1% this century – Chart 4); policy panic working (see surging Japan yen); “whatever it takes” policies to maintain nominal macro Anya Shelekhin boom and asset price bull... stay long commodities & debasement hedges, e.g. gold. Investment Strategist BofAS The Biggest Picture: 10-year rolling return from US stocks 15%, commodities 11%, Treasuries -2% (worst of past 100 years – Chart 2); negative long-run returns great entry Myung-Jee Jung points for stocks in 1939, 1974, 2009 (Chart 5), commodities in 1933, 2018 (Chart 6); Investment Strategist US midterms not “regime change” election like Thatcher/Reagan ’80, BREXIT/Trump ’16, BofAS but Fed hike, UST buybacks, rising risk midterms show voter priority “affordability” not lower taxes, faster AI data center expansion... lower Q4 yields good contrarian play. Jessica Guo Investment Strategist Chart 2: Negative long-run returns… great entry points BofAS US 15-year+ Treasuries: 10-year rolling annualized returns (%)

18% US 15yr+ Treasuries: 10-year rolling annualized returns (%) 16% Chart 1: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Down to 9.6 from 9.7 14% 12% 10% 4 6 8% 2 8 Buy Sell 9.6 6% 0 10 Extreme Extreme 4% Bearish Bullish

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicator 2% identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is Sep'81 0% intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be Dec'59 Aug'26 used for reference purposes or as a measure of -2% -2% performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Polymarket, Bloomberg Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH a benchmark. More on page 2… BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.

Weekly Flows: $30.0bn to cash, $18.3bn to bonds, $3.2bn to gold, $2.8bn to stocks, $0.5bn to crypto.

• Crypto: $0.5bn inflow, past five weeks $5.5bn inflow, biggest since Oct'25 (Chart 12),

• Treasuries: $6.2bn inflow, 10th week of inflows,

• IG bonds: $9.2bn inflow, 22nd week of inflows,

• Bank loans: $0.6bn outflow, biggest since Mar'26,

• Equities: $2.8bn inflow, smallest inflow of past nine weeks (Chart 10),

• China equities: $5.3bn outflow, 5th week of outflows,

• Tech: $1.5bn outflow, biggest since Jun’26 (Chart 11),

• Financials: $0.9bn outflow, 5th week of outflows.

BofA Private Clients: $4.7tn AUM… 66.1% stocks, 17.2% bonds, 9.4% cash (record low); past week sees biggest weekly outflow from equities since Oct’25 (Chart 9); equity ETF share count down 0.1% past week, up 6.9% YTD; past 4 weeks…