Trading Catalysts CPI and the path for Fed hikes; long end buyback; and Oracle earnings

Trading Catalysts CPI and the path for Fed hikes; long-end buyback; and Oracle earnings

All eyes on inflation and what it means for a Sep hike 08 September 2026

Focus this week will be on August CPI report (Fri) and what it implies for core PCE, Equity and Quant Strategy which could decide whether the Fed hikes rates in September, especially after a hawkish United States payroll print last week. Our economists expect the data to be firm enough for the FOMC Paula Andrea Soto, CFA >> to follow through with a hike (they forecast core CPI to rise a trend-like 0.22% m/m in LatAm Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (Brazil) August, see preview on page 3), and they continue to expect 75bp of hikes this year. Our strategists suggest owning Large Cap value in the case of Fed hike concerns. Thomas (T.J.) Thornton Head of Research Marketing Watch this week's long-end buyback operation BofAS Secretary Bessent's decision to raise the cap on 10y+ buybacks is consistent with a Economics more activist approach to debt management (see: UST buybacks = activist debt Stephen Juneau US Economist management), a shift that was also reflected in the revised forward guidance at the Aug BofAS refunding (see: Aug refunding recap). The focus now shifts to this week's long-end Rates Strategy buyback operation, the first since the higher limits were introduced. A UST that doesn’t Meghan Swiber, CFA Rates Strategist take down near the max will temper market expectations for additional steps and likely BofAS see long-end rates cheapen further. Equity & Quant Strategy Savita Subramanian Fed rate hikes concerns? Value over Value traps Equity & Quant Strategist BofAS Any catalyst that pushes credit concerns to the forefront, be it Fed rate hikes, off Fundamental Equity balance sheet financing, private lending hiccups, or an unanticipated increase in long Tal Liani Research Analyst rates, could hasten the pain. Across major credit stress cycles since the 90s, the first BofAS half of the move in spreads from trough to peak took six times longer than the second ETF Research half, and the second half was always accompanied by negative S&P 500 returns. Large Jared Woodard Investment & ETF Strategist Cap Value has provided a ballast for investors, despite AI-fueled spending. Value- BofAS oriented industries that screen well include Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels, Distributors, Derivatives Strategy Metals & Mining, Banks and Leisure Products, and Insurance and Consumer Finance have Nitin Saksena Equity-Linked Analyst improved in August. But watch out for the Value Traps - cheap for a reason - which BofAS include Media and IT Services, where price deterioration is outpacing estimate cuts. See See Team Page for List of Analysts S&P 500 Relative Value Cheat Sheet and Stealth strength: Large cap value.

Oracle: Attractive risk/reward into Sep 10th 1Q27 release Exhibit 1: Key near-term catalysts Oracle reports Sep 10th (Thu). The stock is down -25% since 4Q26 earnings, and BofA SPX implied move analyst Tal Liani likes the risk/reward for Oracle. He believes Street consensus already Imp. captures the challenging balance sheet fundamentals, yet is not fully incorporating the Date move Potential catalysts likelihood of revenue growth acceleration related to reaching DC buildout milestones. 9/8 Tue 0.43% 9/9 Wed 0.41% We highlight instruments that might be related to the themes discussed in this report on 9/10 Thu 0.51% PPI page 2. 9/11 Fri 0.76% ORCL, CPI Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial List of acronyms at the end of this report. resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers…