BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

13.10.26, 11:57 BofA - Global Fund Manager Survey

 Global Fund Manager Survey The Sixth Sense 13 October 2026 | Investment Strategy | Global

Key takeaways Investors bullish into midterms, no Fed hike, booming Q3 earnings Investors say 5.9% is 10-year Treasury yield required to flip from stocks to bonds Investors most OW tech since Aug'20 (AI bubble now consensus), most UW consumer since Jul'08

Notes to Readers Source for all tables and charts: BofA Fund Manager Survey, DataStream Survey period October 2nd to 8th, 2026 185 panellists with $512bn AUM participated in the survey. 161 participants with $453bn AUM responded to the Global FMS questions and 95 participants with $245bn AUM responded to the Regional FMS questions.

How to join the FMS panel Investors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey. This can be done by contacting Michael Hartnett subject=Join%20FMS%20Panel) or your BofA sales representative. Participants in the survey will continue to receive the full set of monthly results but only for the relevant month in which they participate. OW: overweight; UW: underweight AA: asset allocation

BofA October Global Fund Manager Survey Bottom Line: heading into midterms, FOMC & Q3 earnings, investors remain bullish on macro & markets, running low 3.9% cash levels, waiting for ~6%

yields before flipping from stocks to bonds; relative to FMS positioning, big consumer +ve drop in oil to <$80/bbl = the Q4 bull surprise, AI capex cut = the bear surprise.

On Macro: "boom" optimism highest since Feb'22, inflation expectations lowest since Jan'25, bond pessimism lowest since May'25; 6 in 10 investors expect

double-digit EPS growth next year; 76% say no Fed hike at Oct 28th FOMC.

On Crowds, Risks & AI: most crowded trades = long global semis (45%) & short USTs (27%); biggest tail risks = disorderly bond yields (31%) & AI bubble

(23%); most likely source of credit event = AI hyperscaler capex (39%) & govt debt (28%); AI capex cuts coming…no say 57%, yes say 30%; AI bubble in '27...no say 32%, yes say 45%.

13.10.26, 11:57 BofA - Global Fund Manager Survey

On AA: asked what 10-year Treasury yield would cause allocators to shift from stocks to bonds...37% say 6.0%, 19% already shifting, 14% say 6.5% (Chart Accessible Version

1); Oct sees biggest bond short-cover in past year, equity longs dip from net 49% to 44%; biggest tech overweight since Aug'20, biggest cut to bank longs since Mar'23, most underweight consumer discretionary since Jul'08.

FMS Contrarian Trades: long bonds, REITs, consumer discretionary/staples, short stocks, tech, banks, EM.

Chart 1: Investors say 10-year UST yield at 5.9% would prompt AA shift to bonds At what 10y Treasury yield would you consider shifting your allocation from stocks to bonds?

6.0% 37%  Already at levels to prompt shi 19%

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Charts of the Month Chart 2: BofA Global FMS investor sentiment no longer uber bullish October BofA Global FMS investor Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation sentiment pulled back to the least bullish since Jun'26. 10 QE1 BRICS Blue wave Tax cuts Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment, Tax cuts 8 Trump 2.0 based on cash levels, equity allocation, and global growth expectations, fell to 6.4 6 Oct'26 from 7.0. 4 The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator stays at Iraq COVID 8.1 (old B&B at 5.7). 2 9/11 war Trade US/EU CNY Trade war GFC debt crisis deval SVB war 0 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '25 '27 Percen le rank of FMS growth expecta ons + cash AA + equity AA (scale 1-10)

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Chart 3: FMS cash level remains at 3.9% BofA FMS cash level remained at 3.9% in BofA FMS average cash level (% of AUM) October, above recent 3.5% low in bullish Aug'26 FMS but still well below the 4.8% May'00 FMS average cash level (% of AUM) high seen in v bearish Apr'25 FMS. 8%

Feb'01 BofA Global FMS Cash Rule remains in 7% "sell signal" territory ("sell" when cash is at Oct'01 Oct'22 Oct'16 Apr'20 or below 4.0%). 6% Dec'08 Mar'03 Jun'12 Apr'25 5%

3% '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '26

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH