The Point for Europe Monday, 24 August 2026

The Point for Europe Monday, 24 August 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Fixed Income & FX | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call Must Read European Equity Strategy - Unpacking Europe's Rebound Global Economic Outlook & Strategy - European equities have been a key beneficiary of the "broadening trade" in past Renewed Uncertainties—But months, supported by improving economic surprises and earnings revisions. We Continued Resilience remain Neutral on European equities in our global equity allocation, as geopolitical risks remain and valuations are no longer particularly cheap. However, we note that the longer-term case for holding Europe in global portfolios may actually be improving; alongside the potential for continued Cyclical uplift (likely via lower oil prices), the market is supported by idiosyncratic tailwinds from fiscal support and Europe's emerging role as a AI diversifier. We screen for European stocks with positive EPS momentum, attractive relative valuations, and negative net crowding scores. Beata M Manthey, Ph.D. | David Groman | Nikhil N Jadhav, CFA

Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYA.I) - Short Term Pain, Structural Gain The shares have underperformed significantly this year as investors focus on near- term pricing risks and high jet-fuel prices. This loos too short term, missing the real consequences of what a difficult next six months for European shorthaul would mean. While hurting this year's profits, a tough winter would weigh much more heavily on the long tail of smaller airlines operating across Ryanair’s network with weaker balance sheets, thinner margins, and less fuel hedging, ultimately enhancing its competitive position. Looking into next year, we think competitive pressure likely eases, talk of structural margin pressure subsides, and buybacks will re-enter the catalyst horizon. Further near-term weakness in the shares is possible - we think €18 is plausible based off recent P/B troughs - but this -20% would be small in comparison to the 40% and 80% upside in our base and bull cases. We estimate 11x EV/EBIT drops to 7x over next three years. Conor Dwyer

Company Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOb.CO) - Wegovy franchise TRx tracker (w/e 14th Aug). Volatile data but Wegovy broadly flat on 4wk rolling ave We examine Wegovy franchise US total prescriptions (TRx) through launch of Lilly's oral GLP-1 Foundayo (launched April 9th). In w/e 14th Aug (6th full week since Medicare coverage started excluding 4th July week) Wegovy franchise is up 3% _ WoW and flat 4wk rolling average and Wegovy Pill US TRx, +8% WoW (+1% 4wk _

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rolling ave.) with the lowest (1.5mg) starter dose +10% WoW (flat 4wk rolling average), back to growth post a week of -10% decline. On Foundayo, IQVIA captured 36,620 TRx in w/e 14th Aug, -6% WoW following last week's strong +14% growth, which compares to 137,333 Wegovy pill captured in its 18th full week of launch. We see it as difficult to discern the impact of Medicare coverage to date given volatility in the data. Graham Parry | Amy Y Mao | Leolie Telford-Cooke Ph.D. | Jelena Milovic | Mahesh Mohankumar

Holcim (HOLN.S) - Holcim Acquires Fermacell to Strengthen Sustainable Building Solutions Holcim announced the acquisition of Fermacell for EV €840mn, further strengthening its Building Solutions portfolio in Europe. Fermacell is a leading provider of sustainable walling and flooring solutions, with 2026e net sales ~€430mn, more than 1,000 employees, six production sites and operations across 13 European markets. The business owns premium brands such as fermacell® and Aestuver®, which will complement Holcim’s existing portfolio of Ytong, Silka, Hebel and Multipor brands. The acquisition expands Holcim’s presence in high- value building systems, particularly in walling, flooring, fire protection and modular construction, and aligns with its NextGen Growth 2030 strategy aimed at increasing exposure to sustainable and value-added construction solutions. Management expects the transaction to generate run-rate EBITDA synergies of ~€22mn by year three, implying a purchase multiple of…