The Point for Europe Tuesday, 28 July 2026

The Point for Europe Tuesday, 28 July 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Commodities | Fixed Income & FX | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call Must Read EDP Renewables (EDPR.LS) - The start of a new chapter. Guidance upgrade to Global Economic Outlook & Strategy - come? Renewed Uncertainties—But Continued Resilience EDPR announced the sale of 80% equity stake in 384MW of US renewable portfolio, consisting of 200MW of solar and 184MW of BESS, both with 20-year PPA/CTA. At 100%, the EV stand at $800m, of which EDPR will receive $450mn equity for its 80%. The transaction implies 12x EV/EBITDA (once operational on EDPR forecast). Assuming $1.5m/MW capex, we expect the transaction to generate $220-230m or c.€200m capital gains. We expect the deal to close before year-end, and underpin management's €2–300m target (on top of c.€50m we forecast in 1H). Coming shortly after the sale of EDPR's Italian renewable portfolio in 2Q, this transaction further demonstrates EDPR's attractive valuations of 1.4x EV/IC, leaving behind capex overspend of recent past. This set up EDPR/EDP for FY26 earnings upgrade (at 1H or 9m), as well as... Jenny Ping | Chris McDonagh

Admiral Group (ADML.L) - Boiling the Frog – Upgrade to Buy Admiral’s co-Founder Henry Engelhardt famously commented that the 2006 UK motor insurance market was like a frog boiling slowly – nothing overly dramatic but results were getting steadily worse (no frogs were harmed at the time). We see something similar now and expect real rate to compound from 2H with Admiral leading the way. Admiral has drip-fed small real rate increases in early 2026 that if sustained make consensus estimates look far too cautious in our view. Our EPS estimates are now 15-17% ahead of consensus in 2027/28. We upgrade our recommendation to Buy and open a positive Catalyst Watch. James A Shuck

Company AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.L) - Pipeline still looks full. Raising EPS 1-3% and TP to £178 AZN’s 2Q results looked solid to us, with the call a good reminder of the size and breadth of its pipeline, with 19 key Phase III readouts expected in 2027 and AZN flagging 12 assets with peak sales potential >$5bn and 5 with peak potential $3- 5bn expected to have pivotal readouts by 2030 and drive growth beyond. In our _ view, this underscores its ability to absorb setbacks such as the recent Wainua _

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failure (-3% to DCF), for which we feel the share price reaction was overdone. Although we are cautious on their success, we see positive risk-reward into SERENA-4 and AVANZAR, given market caution reflected in the stock’s discounted PE (15x 27E for 15% 27-30E EPS CAGR) and see upside from tozorakimab/ efzimfotase alfa detailed data. Graham Parry | Amy Y Mao | Leolie Telford-Cooke Ph.D. | Jelena Milovic | Mahesh Mohankumar

LVMH (LVMH.PA) - Inflection point reached as growth and cFX profitability improve With 2Q26 Group and Fashion & Leather organic growth accelerating sequentially to +3% (cons.+2%) and +1% (cons.+1.7%), respectively, a ~3% 1H EBIT beat driven by improved sales momentum at the three high-margin divisions and continued cost reduction (Group/F&L EBIT margin -10bp/-60bp YoY to 22.5%/34.1% vs. cons.21.8%/33.3%), and even better ex-FX (+40bp/+20bp), alongside a reassuring conference call, the half-year results should provide a solid foundation for the shares, having underperformed YTD (-28% vs.sector -20%) and derated to ~18x FY27E P/E. Higher brand investment, disciplined cost control and strengthened leadership teams should help cushion cyclical pressures, in our view. The stabilisation in earnings since the 3Q25 sales print last October, together with resilient 1H26 sales outside the Middle East, particularly among US and Asian consumers, supports our view that LVMH has reached an inflection point in sales momentum and profitability. We expect no change to FY27E consensus sales and EBIT forecasts.... Thomas Chauvet

UniCredit Group (CRDI.MI) - Rebuilding Our Model for Commerzbank Consolidation We update our model post-2Q26 results and for the first time formally include a consolidation…