TPL July 26 26

What to Make of All This… With so much out of the norm, how does one rely on an old playbook to make decisions? In the face of numerous indicators pointing to increased economic momentum, renewed challenges from the Iran quagmire, another round of heightened energy costs and new tariff initiatives dare to wreack havoc on simplistic projections. Economic strength was bolstered by the FIFA World Cup spectacle and USA 250 anniversary activities, while manufacturing slowed and price pressures intensified. Weather conditions were a factor globally, as well. It has been argued that lower- and middle-income households might have boosted their take-home pay by reducing their tax withholdings to reflect tax relief offered by the new Republican legislation. This could turn into a fundamental driver for all of 2026. Tech and AI-related investment is increasingly supporting broader domestic demand - - a factor here and abroad. Even with significant pushback from various sectors, the wave of optimism that AI technologies are generating points to tangible supply-side dividends. Although not easily discernable in realized traditional statistical performance, the test will be if productivity stats pick up. And now more tariff tensions. The Trump administration is again pushing on effective tariff rates and generating new policy-related uncertainty. The previous 10% tariffs under section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 expired this past Friday after 150 days, and the administration has replaced them with section 301 tariffs on some 60 trading partners. Nineteen of them will see 10% tariffs for purportedly failing to adequately enforce existing restrictions on imports using forced labor; the remainder will see 12.5% tariffs for lacking such protections. This rationale is likely to be challenged in court. Meanwhile, 25% tariffs were imposed on Brazil and 50% tariffs threatened on Canada under the never-before-used section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (aka Smoot Hawley).Economic and financial stability is not in the offing.

Kuwait and Jordan Big rise in Japan government debt yields lure some traders but many report Iranian attacks Russian Refinery Runs Plunge to Lowest in More Than Two Decades remain wary of fiscal outlook  Houthis attack 2 Saudi-flagged New tariffs aim to tankers in Red Sea -- opening US 30-Year Mortgage stick… Trump Tariffs, second front in Middle East war More Tariffs, and More . . . Rate Hits 11-Month High  Oil soars to $100

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to close "all other export corridors that benefit the US ​and its allies", Iranian media reported, after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and the US reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Canadian Wildfire Smoke to Worsen ABRAHAM GULKOWITZ Air Quality Across New York New World Competitiveness Rankings

July 26, 2026 The PunchLine...

In This Issue • What to Make of All This… With so much out of the norm, how does one rely on an old playbook to • The Home Front (pg 13) make decisions? In the face of numerous indicators pointing to increased • The Rest of the Story… (pg 14) economic momentum, renewed challenges from the Iran quagmire, another round of heightened energy costs and new tariff initiatives dare to wreack • More Greasy Stuff… (pg 15) havoc on simplistic projections. Economic strength was bolstered by the FIFA World Cup spectacle and USA 250 anniversary activities, while • Breaking it Down… (pg 16) manufacturing slowed and price pressures intensified. Weather conditions • The Likelihood of Unlikely Events (pg 17) were a factor globally, as well. It has been argued that lower- and middle- income households might have boosted their take-home pay by reducing • The DNA of Business… (pg 18) their tax withholdings to reflect tax relief offered by the new Republican legislation. This could turn into a fundamental driver for all of 2026. Tech • Real Estate and Construction… (pg 19) and AI-related investment is increasingly supporting broader domestic • Will Life Ever be the Same? (pg 20) demand - - a factor here and abroad. Even with significant pushback from various sectors, the wave of optimism that AI technologies are generating points to…