Transformational Innovation Opportunities (TRIO)

15 September 2026, 16:05 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

Longevity weekly pulse #73: AZN’s pipeline setback and medical device weakness Transformational Innovation Opportunities (TRIO): Longevity Authors: Eric Potoker, CIO Equity Strategist, US Health care, UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS); Diana Na, Healthcare Sector Equity Analyst, UBS AG London Branch; Thomas Parmentier, CIO Equity Sector Strategist - Consumers, UBS Switzerland AG

• AstraZeneca’s SERENA-4 failed to show a statistically significant efficacy benefit, but we view the setback as broadly manageable. Focus now shifts to CAMBRIA and AVANZAR as key pipeline catalysts.

• Stryker’s weakness appears largely company-specific and linked to cyberattack-related disruptions. We think SYK's growth should recover later this year or in 2027.

• While we think the broader medical device sector is experiencing some end-market deceleration, we think medical device shares and valuations have broadly overreacted in recent months and see scope for a stronger recovery. Source: Getty images, UBS

Thoughts of the week Management has recently sounded increasingly constructive about the trial. We think the delayed readout is potentially more consistent with ongoing efficacy than with a clearly AstraZeneca SERENA-4 disappointment shifts focus to negative outcome, while emerging data from related AVANZAR TROP2 ADC studies continue to support the class. A positive AVANZAR readout would help rebuild confidence Last week, AstraZeneca announced that the Phase 3 in AstraZeneca's late-stage R&D execution following recent SERENA-4 trial failed to achieve a statistically significant pipeline disappointments. improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) versus anastrozole when combined with palbociclib in front line Bottom line: We see SERENA-4 as a disappointment, but not ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer. A numerical benefit a thesis-changing event. Camizestrant's value increasingly was observed, and no new safety concerns emerged. rests on SERENA-6 and the CAMBRIA adjuvant studies, This outcome mirrors Roche's earlier persevERA failure while AVANZAR is now the key near-term catalyst for and suggests that replacing aromatase inhibitors with oral AstraZeneca shares and a critical test of the company's SERDs upfront in an endocrine-sensitive population may not broader pipeline narrative. generate a meaningful efficacy advantage. Stryker comments trigger sector weakness despite That said, we view the financial and strategic implications as limited read-through manageable. Investor expectations had already been reset following the Roche read-through, and consensus value Medical device stocks were notably weak last week for camizestrant is increasingly centered on the approved following comments from Stryker (SYK) at an investor SERENA-6 ESR1-mutation switch indication and the larger conference. We think SYK's comments are largely company- adjuvant opportunities in the ongoing CAMBRIA program. specific, with weakness continuing after the first-quarter cyberattack, which impaired SYK's ability to deliver certain The failure also removes an overhang and leaves AVANZAR products to customers. as AstraZeneca's next major pipeline catalyst. AVANZAR is evaluating Datroway (Dato-DXd) in front line non-small cell lung cancer, a considerably larger commercial opportunity.

This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS), UBS AG London Branch, UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document.

Transformational Innovation Opportunities (TRIO): Longevity

At the conference, SYK noted continued weakness in its peripheral vascular business, citing ongoing production delays following the first-quarter cyberattack. It also cited increased seasonality in its orthopedic business, with procedure growth slowing in July and August after what it described as strong growth in June.

We see some rationale for heightened seasonality in orthopedic procedures this year. However, seasonality— and the potential for a related year-end acceleration in surgical volumes—remains speculative until procedure data for September and subsequent months are…