Turkiye Current Account Deficit Widened to US$4

Economics Research 14 August 2026 | 3:11PM BST

Turkiye: Current Account Deficit Widened to US$4.2bn in June due to Higher Imports; Tourist Arrivals Weakened Further

Bottom line: The current account deficit widened from US$1.3bn nsa in May to Clemens Grafe | US$4.2bn nsa in June, slightly narrower than our forecast of US$5.0bn and Goldman Sachs International consensus of US$5.1bn. The monthly deterioration was driven by higher core goods Basak Edizgil imports amid weak tourism revenues. | Goldman Sachs International Real goods exports improved in June, but preliminary trade data suggest this reversed again in July, with real goods export growth falling to -9%yoy on a 3mma basis. Export weakness is now offset by lower real goods imports, which declined to -7%yoy 3mma in July. However, tourism revenues have come under further pressure, with tourist arrivals contracting from April onwards and reaching -6%yoy 3mma in June.

We expect export weakness to persist through the rest of the year and the core trade deficit to continue widening, albeit at a slower pace as external demand recovers from its Q1 trough and imports fall. Including preliminary July trade data, the 12-month rolling current account deficit is now running at 2.4% of GDP, and we expect it to reach 3.5% of GDP, or around US$62bn, by end-2026.

Financial account: The financial account recorded US$4.2bn of inflows in June, mainly from US$4.0bn of net other investment and US$2.5bn of net portfolio inflows, partly offset by US$0.9bn of net direct investment outflows. E&O flows were negligible, and given the US$4.2bn current account deficit, reserves increased by US$1.0bn on a BoP basis.

The TCMB also published a revised errors and omissions series, showing materially smaller cumulative E&O outflows after better accounting for their sources. Adjusting for residents’ offshore deposit transfers—which should not affect the BoP—reduces cumulative E&O outflows by US$13.3bn over Jan-23-May-26. Similarly, accounting for profits and losses on financial derivatives lowers E&O outflows by a further US$6.5bn over Jan-24-May-26. Overall, the revisions reduce cumulative E&O outflows over 2023-2026 from US$57.8bn to US$23.5bn, explaining more than half of the previously recorded outflows.

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Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 1: 12-month Rolling Current Account Deficit is Running at 2.4% of GDP

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics