Upstart Holdings (UPST) Releases July Origination Volumes

Equity Research 3 August 2026 | 9:01AM EDT

Upstart Holdings (UPST): Releases July Origination Volumes

Bottom line: UPST reported July monthly originations of ~$1,397mn, with roughly Will Nance | $51.0mn daily volumes (UPST weighting impacts origination days). 3Q quarterly Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

origination volumes are trending below 3Q total volume estimates (roughly $4.1bn vs Jack Evans | ~$4.2bn, or 2% below current Street estimates). Beyond volumes, UPST also recently Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

released the Upstart Macro Index results for August, flat month over month to 1.50 Chandru Ravikumar | (1.49 for July), signaling modestly higher default rates relative to historical averages. Goldman Sachs India SPL Putting it all together, although volumes decelerated from their May/June levels, we believe this is partially the product of more difficult 2025 comps and as such, we wait for 2Q earnings (tomorrow, 8/4) to learn more about the composition of recent growth (remains unclear on Auto and HELOC composition) which should provide more color on how the company is tracking relative to contribution profit expectations.

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Goldman Sachs Upstart Holdings (UPST)

Exhibit 1: Monthly Origination Volumes UPST Monthly Originations Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 3Q25 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 2Q26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 3Q26 Cons Δ cons

Days in Month Origination Days (#) $ per day % yoy 132% 66% 60% 51% 58% 42% 32% 51% 44%

Weekdays Weighting Weekend/Holidays Weighting Weighted orig. days GSe

Origination ($M) 1, ,854 1,274 1,453 1,500 4,227 1,397 1,374 1,369 4,141 4,234 (2.2%) % yoy 122% 60% 66% 80% 51% 52% 48% 50% 34% 60% 43% 45% 48%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Visible Alpha Consensus Data

Exhibit 2: UMI vs Company Daily Originations Exhibit 3: UPST Monthly Originations

UMI, RHS $ per day UPST monthly Originations 1.8 70 1,600 1,500 1,453 1, ,400 1,266 1,274 1.61 1,165 1.6 1,200 1, ,016 1,042 1,028 1, , ,

Source: Company data Source: Company data

Valuation We are Neutral rated on UPST with a 12-month PT of $39 based on a 15x EV/EBITDA-SBC on our Q5-Q8 estimates. Key upside risks include better than expected credit, improved underwriting model updates, and higher than expected LTVs. Key downside risks include worse than expected credit, higher competition, less favorable regulation, and weaker new product adoption.