US Tariff Impact Tracker Indicated Imports into LA Positive on YOY Basis

Equity Research 24 August 2026 | 5:02AM EDT

US Tariff Impact Tracker: Indicated Imports into LA Positive on YOY Basis Over Next Two Weeks

US Tariff Impact Tracker: This past week, laden vessels from China to USA were Jordan Alliger | up sequentially (+1% WoW) and up on a YoY basis (+5% YoY). Data suggests Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC TEUs coming into Port of LA will stay positive next week (+26% WoW) following Paul Stoddard this past week’s +3% sequential move, before seeing a decline of -12.5% WoW | two weeks out (YoY is expected to be +12% and then +11%, one week and two Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

weeks out). What we will need to monitor is how levels move through August and Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA | September, which could suggest how shippers are deciding to restock, how peak Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC could be starting (and whether there was an early start to peak shipping this spring), and within some cases how lower effective tariff rates impact import decisions amidst an uncertain geopolitical backdrop. We do highlight that trucking activity on the West Coast reflected in load availability and spot rates, have shown a meaningful decline over July and August, which could indicate some level of pull forward activity in May/June is now tapering off. That said, with imports into LA still pointing to YoY growth, as well as intermodal volumes remaining positive, we could see West Coast trucking stabilize, and if order activity picks up, we could see rates and loads pick back up through the end of the year.

Trade uncertainty remains prevalent in global trade.

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Goldman Sachs US Tariff Impact Tracker

Key observations from this past week’s report:

n China freight flows (week ending Thursday, August 20th) showed a sequential increase in laden vessels from China to the US (+1%) with a positive YoY at +5% (vs +10% in the prior week). n Port Optimizer sequentials indicate imports into the Port of Los Angeles are set to be up +26% TEUs (August 28) while the early read suggests a decrease of -12.5% on a two-week out basis; on a YoY basis, imports into LA are set to trend positive to +12% and then +11% two-week out. n Rail intermodal volumes along the West Coast were up +4% YoY following last week’s +4% performance. n Ocean container rates were up +1% sequentially; rates on a YoY basis were up 4.3x YoY this past week. We anticipate some choppiness could remain over the coming weeks as global capacity potentially shifts given ongoing geopolitical events. n Load availability for trucks on the West Coast decreased last week sequentially (-9%) and was negative on a YoY basis (-23%); truck spot rates on the West Coast were up +19% YoY ex-fuel.

What the Tracker Is: What We Disseminate Weekly: High frequency data to help assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains and the accompanying ramifications on the flows of freight (e.g., expected ships leaving from China to USA). While we think our data set is representative, we do plan to periodically add new data series as they become available.

It is important to recognize that weekly data can be volatile, with a fair bit of noise depending on timing—but we still think looking at the data collectively, and perhaps over a multi-week basis can be informative as to tariff-related trends.

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