US Weekly Kickstart The outlook for corporate equity supply and demand in 2027

Portfolio Strategy Research 9 October 2026 | 6:03PM EDT

The outlook for corporate equity supply and demand in 2027

n 2026 is on track to be a record year for US equity issuance. US corporates have Ben Snider | raised $431 billion YTD via IPOs, follow-ons, converts, and SPACs, representing Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

growth of 98% year/year. The total dollar volume of US equity issuance in 2026 Ryan Hammond | will likely surpass the previous high of $540 billion in 2021. However, the number Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC of deals and the value of issuance scaled to market cap are close to historical Daniel Chavez averages. | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC n Following record issuance volumes in Q2, macro volatility has weighed on Kartik Jayachandran activity in recent months. In addition to a handful of large deals, more than 90 | US equity offerings came to market in each of May and June. However, the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

monthly average declined to roughly 50 deals in Q3. Sharp rises in interest rates Christophe Sung | have historically been associated with declining issuance volumes, and this Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC pattern has been repeated recently. n We expect corporate equity issuance will total $600 billion in 2027. Solid economic growth, rising equity prices, a decline in interest rates, and ongoing AI investment should drive continued robust equity issuance in 2027. We forecast IPO volume of $175 billion and other primary supply of $425 billion. This issuance would collectively equate to 0.8% of US equity market cap, in line with the 10-year average. n Equity capital should continue to play a supporting role in funding the AI investment boom. AI-related follow-on issuance has totaled $65 billion year to date, accounting for 45% of US equity follow-on volumes. This compares with roughly $600 billion of AI-related debt issuance. GS equity analyst and credit strategist forecasts suggest hyperscaler operating cash flow and debt issuance will together exceed capex in 2027 and 2028. n Resilient corporate equity demand will help offset ongoing equity issuance. S&P 500 buybacks grew by 15% year/year in H1 2026 and recent authorizations suggest this strength will continue. We expect gross buybacks will total roughly $1.7 trillion in 2027, up from $1.5 trillion in 2026. Growing cash M&A will also contribute to corporate equity demand. n Including expiring lockups, the net supply of US public equity will likely increase next year by the largest amount since 2000. The shifting balance of corporate supply and demand adds pressure on equity valuations, but we do not expect increasing equity supply to derail the bull market. Strong demand from

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Goldman Sachs US Weekly Kickstart

households and foreign investors totaled more than $1 trillion in H1 2026, and our outlook for continued economic and earnings growth alongside declining interest rates should support continued investor demand for equities in 2027.