USA UMich Sentiment Declines
Economics Research 14 August 2026 | 10:30AM EDT
USA: UMich Sentiment Declines; Short-Term Inflation Expectations Rise
BOTTOM LINE: The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined Jan Hatzius | by more than expected in the August preliminary report. The report’s 1-year Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
inflation expectations measure increased by 0.1pp to 4.3% and the 5–10-year David Mericle | measure was unchanged at 3.3%. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
US MAP: Alec Phillips | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC University of Michigan consumer sentiment -2 (1, -2) Ronnie Walker | KEY NUMBERS: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary) 51.0 for August vs. GS 55.0, median Elsie Peng | forecast 55.0, prior 55.2 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Pierfrancesco Mei University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (preliminary) 4.3% for August vs. | median forecast 4.2%, prior 4.2% Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Jessica Rindels University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations (preliminary) 3.3% for | August vs. GS 3.3%, median forecast 3.3%, prior 3.3% Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Abhay Duggirala MAIN POINTS: | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 1. The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined by 4.2pt to 51.0 in the August preliminary report, below expectations. The survey’s current economic conditions component declined by 3.0pt to 51.8 and the consumer expectations component declined by 4.8pt to 50.6. The University of Michigan noted that “notably large reductions [in sentiment] were seen among older consumers, lower-income consumers, and those without a college degree. These groups are all particularly vulnerable to any erosion of purchasing power stemming from inflation.”
2. Median inflation expectations over the next year increased 0.1pp to 4.3%, above consensus expectations. Inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years were unchanged at 3.3%, in line with expectations.
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, University of Michigan
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve
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