Venture Global (VG) First Take 2Q26 Slight Miss on Margins, but 2026 Guidance Increased

Equity Research 11 August 2026 | 7:11AM EDT

Venture Global (VG): First Take: 2Q26 Slight Miss on Margins, but 2026 Guidance Increased

Venture Global (VG, Buy) reported 2Q26 adj. EBITDA of $2,491m, just below GSe John Mackay | of $2,517m and FactSet consensus of $2,510m (-1%). Softer than expected Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC margins drove the slight miss vs our estimate, while underlying volumes were in line Olivia Foster following the company’s operating data pre-release in July. Looking forward, VG | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC raised 2026 adj. EBITDA guidance to $8.7-9.1b (up from $8.2-8.5b prior), above GSe/consensus of $8.23b/$8.51b, on the recent increase in the 2H26 spread outlook Jackie Koletas | as well as slightly higher production expectations. Other updates were quieter, with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC no new formal contracts announced (since two in June), CP2 construction Ben Lund progressing well (but no change to the 2H27 first gas guide), and the CP1 arbitration | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ongoing (two cases remaining). Overall, softer quarterly EBITDA but higher 2026 guidance reflects our view of a 2Q to 3Q timing shift and thus likely gets looked through today, in our view - with the focus on the call likely being margin capture/execution and the ongoing large capacity build-out.

n Volumes were in line: Total volumes of 127 cargoes or 466 tbtu realized in the quarter were both in line with GSe of 126 cargoes or 466 tbtu, following the company’s July operating data pre-release. n Margins were softer: Blended gross margins of $6.25/mmbtu came below GSe of ~$6.45/mmbtu. On an EBITDA basis, total EBITDA generated per volume recognized in the period came in at $5.34/mmbtu or -1% below our estimate. n Opex was mixed. O&M of $335m came in above GSe of $293m, while G&A of $112m was below GSe of $133m. Development expense of $23m was also below GSe of $77m,

2026 EBITDA guidance raise. VG raised 2026 adj. EBITDA guidance to $8.7-9.1b (up from $8.2-8.5b prior), above GSe/consensus of $8.23b/$8.51b, on the recent increase in the 2H26 spread outlook as well as slightly higher production expectations. The guide contemplates a $12.50-13.50/mmbtu Bal26 spot spread, above GSe of $8.50/mmbtu (3Q26-4Q26) but in line with the forward curve. Total 2026 volume guidance was tightened and raised the midpoint to 500-518 cargoes (from 494 - 523 prior), which compares to GSe of 514 cargoes.

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Goldman Sachs Venture Global (VG)

Quiet on the commercial front. There were no new commercial updates with the release following the 0.5 mtpa upsize to VG’s 20-year SPA with Atlantic-SEE and the 0.82 mtpa EnBW contract which were both announced in June 2026. We will look for an update on the expected go-forward commercializing pace on the call to underwrite the unchanged 6.4 mtpa Plaq bolt-on and the 10 mtpa CP2 expansion plans.

Arbitration damages requested were flat QoQ, though still $6.1-8.4b. There were no new updates on the pending arbitration cases following the recent arbitration settlement announced in March with aggregated pending arbitration claims flat at $6.1-8.4b (including remedies sought by BP of $3.7-6b). While we acknowledge VG is likely limited in discussing ongoing arbitration processes, we will look for commentary on the call on BP, around timing of the remaining cases, processes and timelines for potential damages hearings (the BP damages hearing is set for May 2027) and associated appeals and/or damages outlays, funding levers for downside cases, and implications for commercial discussions, and methodology for pursuing potential settlements.

Our price target and estimates are unchanged ahead of VG’s earnings call. Key…