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Week Ahead Friday, 4 September 2026 Nils Jerveland Nils Jerveland | Dana Malas

ECB rate decision and US CPI data Forecasts & The ECB’s interest rate decision will be this week’s main event, together with US and publications Swedish CPI data, which will help shape expectations ahead of uncertain Fed and You find our latest forecasts and Riksbank decisions later this month. In Norway, attention will turn to CPI and published analysis and comments at manufacturing data. Lastly, keep an eye out for SEB’s Housing Price Indicator, released on SEB Research Monday. Snapshots of our forecasts as of • US: It’s all about the August CPI, after several Fed members have said the data will decide 4 September: how they will vote at the September meeting. We, and consensus, expect core CPI to Financial Forecasts continue to edge lower, to 2.4% y/y, which should be enough for the Fed to stay on hold, Central Banks Forecasts awaiting more proof that disinflation continues beyond temporary effects from tariffs, GDP & CPI forecasts energy and – to some extent – the AI build-out. PPI data will be important too for the Emerging markets forecasts calculation of the Fed’s key PCE inflation metric, which remains unusually high vs the CPI, Market Pricing though parts of the gap may ease after a planned revision later this month. Recent publications from Strategy • Euro area: The ECB interest rate decision (Thu) is the main event. We expect an increase in & Economic Research: the deposit rate by 25 bp to 2.50 per cent. Also, we will get industrial production for major Macro economies, revised GDP data for the Euro area as whole (containing more details) and final Central Banks inflation numbers for Germany (Aug). We will also pay attention to the German state Fixed Income election in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6. FX Commodities • Sweden: August flash CPI (Mon) will be very important for assessing the probability of a Sustainability Riksbank rate hike already this year. Monthly growth metrics including the GDP indicator (Thu), SEB's Housing Price Indicator (Mon), the budget balance (Mon) and home prices from You can also subscribe to our Mäklarstatistik (Tue) are also interesting events this week. analysis here

• Norway: CPI-ATE for Aug (Fri) will be highly important this week ahead of Norges Bank’s rate decision on Sep 24. We expect CPI-ATE to rise to 3.1% y/y, narrowing the spread to Norges Bank’s 3.4% y/y estimate. The upturn is primarily driven by a base effect from childcare fees which will lift inflation 0.3pp. Manufacturing data (Mon) for July will be important as it will set the tone for manufacturing production for Q3.

US CPI: A deciding factor for the Fed’s September meeting Excepted rate hike of 25 bp by the ECB on September 10

Strategy & Economic Research: Week Ahead Friday, 04 September 2026 2

Key Economic Indicators & Events: 7 – 13 Sep, 2026 Date CEST Country Event Period SEB forecast* Consensus* Last* Mon 7 Other: US & Canadian markets are closed, Fed quiet period (5 - 17 September), ECB quiet period (3 - 9 September). 01:01 UK S&P Global, KPMG and REC UK report on jobs --- --- 06:30 SWE SEB housing-price indicator --- --- 08:00 SWE Budget balance Aug --- -9.2bn 08:00 SWE CPI Aug P -0.2/0.4 -0.1/0.5 -0.3/0.2 08:00 SWE CPIF | CPIF excl. energy Aug P -0.1/0.8 | -0.4/0.7 -0.1/0.9 | -0.3/0.7 -0.3/0.7 | 0.4/0.6 08:00 NOR Manufacturing production | industrial Jul ---/--- | ---/--- -1.0/0.7 | 7.6/9.1 08:00 GER Industrial production sa mom/wda yoy Jul 0.5/0.5 0.2/-0.1 10:30 EA Sentix investor confidence Sep 1.6 0.9 11:00 EA Employment qoq | yoy Q2 F --- | --- 0.1 | 0.5 11:00 EA Govt expend qoq | gross fix cap qoq | household cons qoq Q2 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.2 11:00 EA GDP sa qoq | yoy Q2 T 0.4 | 1.0 0.4 | 1.0 Tue 8 Auctions: GER to sell bonds (11:30), US to sell bills/notes (17:30/19:00). Speeches: RBA's Hunter/Hauser (05:20/11:30). 01:50 JPN GDP sa qoq | annualised sa qoq | nominal sa qoq Q2 F 0.4 | 1.80 | 1.3 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 06:00 SWE Housing price data from Mäklarstatistik --- --- 08:00 NOR Household real disposable income | savings ratio Q2 --- | --- --- | --- 08:00 GER Exports sa mom | imports sa mom Jul 0.2 | -0.9 0.9 | | 4.4 12:00…