Week in Focus 24 28th August 2026 1

Week in Focus: 24-28th August 2026 Highlights include: NVDA earnings, US PCE, BLS revisions, Bessent on Iran, and Jackson Hole • MON: US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran; Mexican Inflation (Aug), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jul) • TUE: RBA Minutes (Aug), German GDP Final (Q2), German Ifo Expectations (Aug), US House Price Index (Jun), US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) • WED: Australian CPI (Jul), US PCE (Jul) and GDP 2nd (Q2), Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings. • THU: Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27-29th), BoK Announcement, German GfK (Sep) • FRI: Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27-29th), Tokyo CPI (Aug), Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jul), French and Spanish Prelim CPI (Aug), Canadian GDP (Jul), US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel

WEEK AHEAD BESSENT (MON): US Treasury Secretary Bessent is to give an update on Iran on Monday, with the focus on economic sanctions, which he says will collapse the regime and squash the Iranian economy. He suggested coordinated action and warned that if other countries insist on doing business with Iran, the US will enforce actions against them. This could be problematic for China, with Kpler data showing China buys more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil, according to 2025 data. The scale of the sanctions is expected to be large, given Bessent warned they will be the toughest sanctions in history. Although the sanctions are expected to be tough, Bessent noted that the maximum economic pressure campaign means a kinetic restart is unlikely, showing the administration appears to be focusing on sanctions rather than strikes.

RBA MINUTES (TUE): The RBA Minutes of its August meeting will be released, where the Bank kept its Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. As a reminder, it maintained its hawkish tone as it stated that inflation is still elevated and risks are skewed to the upside, with the central bank remaining focused on preventing high inflation from becoming entrenched and will continue to do what it considers necessary to return inflation sustainably to target, including raising the Cash Rate. It also stated that inflation remains too high and is not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027, with upside risks to that projection. The overall tone from the initial release was seen to be slightly less hawkish than previous, as the central bank noted that financial conditions appeared to be somewhat restrictive and it trimmed some of its CPI forecasts in the quarterly SoMP. It also acknowledged that following three increases since the start of the year, financial conditions were now tighter than previously.

AUSTRALIAN CPI (WED): Monthly CPI is expected to ease to 3.3% Y/Y in July (prev. 3.8%), with Westpac also forecasting 3.3%, alongside a 0.8% M/M rise. Westpac expects holiday travel, auto fuel and some domestic services to drive the monthly increase, while electricity prices provide the main drag. The monthly trimmed mean is expected to rise 0.4% M/M, taking the annual pace to 3.5% (prev. 3.6%). Focus will be on whether underlying inflation continues to moderate, with a softer print supporting the case for the RBA to remain on hold.

US PCE (WED): The consensus expects headline PCE prices to rise by +0.1% M/M in July (prev. -0.1%); the core measure is seen rising by +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.1%), with the annual rate of core PCE seen unchanged at 3.3% Y/Y. In July, headline CPI rose by +0.1% M/M (prev. -0.4%), with the annual rate slipping to 3.4% Y/Y (prev. 3.5%); the core CPI metric printed +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.0%), with the annual core rate down one-tenth to 2.5% Y/Y. Meanwhile, headline PPI was unchanged in July (prev. -0.3%), with the annual rate dropping to 4.7% Y/Y from 5.5%; the core PPI measure rose +0.2% M/M, missing expectations for +0.3%, while the annual rate fell to 4.2% Y/Y from 4.7%. Writing after the CPI and PPI reports, WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos said that most forecasters were looking for a July core PCE reading of 0.22% M/M, and 3.3% Y/Y, adding that this would imply ‘no wedge’ with the July core CPI (also +0.22%); he noted that portfolio management fees are making a meaningful contribution to the core…