S&S&TSELLHighlighted
GS FOMC View The September FOMC Goldmans Take from Traders and Research 15 Sep 2026
- **Fed Hike Driver**: 25bp hike driven by market pricing, not fundamentals; Fed likely avoids further hikes due to inflation data and geopolitical risks (Iran war, tariffs) - **Terminal Rate Shift**: Updated 2027-2028 rate forecast raises terminal rate to 3.25-3.5% (vs 3-3.25%), with delayed cuts (Sept/Dec vs June/Dec) - **Neutral Rate Trajectory**: Neutral rate expected to rise gradually to 3.25-3.5% over next year, driven by strong economy at higher rates and AI-driven equilibrium rate increases - **Geopolitical Risk Impact**: Iran war escalation and tariffs create active risk factors, directly influencing Fed policy stance and market positioning - **FX & USD Direction**: USD short vs JPY/AUD; USDJPY retest at 152, AUD potential at 7200; energy/fiscal concerns weigh on USD strength - **Gold Headwinds**: CPI-driven Fed hiking (negative for gold), Hormuz conflict logistics risks, and yield curve pressures create near-term headwinds; $4k target contingent on Fed data clarity - **Crude Oil Volatility**: Saudi pipeline shutdown (Iranian proxy attack) triggers price spikes; Houthi campaign disrupts flows, shifting volatility (put skew, short vol exit)