Quantum
- **Quantum Threat Timeline & Bitcoin Exposure**: Q-day (cryptographic break) has 28-49% probability within 10-20 years, exposing $400bn in Bitcoin supply (30% by 2026) to immediate decryption; "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks enable future breaches without migration plans.
- **Policy Divergence & Systemic Risk**: US leads with $11.4bn public quantum commitments (Usher order, post-quantum migration), while EU lacks cohesive strategy (fragmented, no unified market), risking crypto-agile readiness; BIS estimates 0.1% GDP loss in 5y from confidence erosion (not IT failure).
- **NIST Deadline & Institutional Gap**: NIST finalized post-quantum standards (Aug 2024); regulators deprecate legacy crypto by 2030, disallowing after 2035.
- Only 35% of large orgs have credible migration roadmaps, creating asymmetric risk vs.